346
FNUS73 KPAH 151227
FWSPAH
SPOT FORECAST FOR ESSMAN RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
727 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CDT ON MARCH 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY
DISCUSSION
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE ABOVE THE CRITICAL 1700 FT AGL LEVEL BY MID
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AS WE RESIDE
IN A WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT'S APPROACH AND PASSAGE.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 35 PERCENT EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASING TO 45 PERCENT EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 68 PERCENT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 89 PERCENT
DECREASING TO 75 PERCENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........60 AT IGNITION...MAX 67.
RH..................80 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS SOUTH AT 13 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
37 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2900 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 28 TO 35 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 26
TO 28 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /27800 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD
/96800 KNOT-FT/.
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC MC MC CDY MC MC CDY CDY
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC LKY DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 40 50 70 90 80
TEMP............60 59 61 62 63 65 65 65 67 65
RH..............80 82 81 80 78 74 74 76 70 70
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S SW
20 FT WIND SPD..14 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 13
20 FT WIND GUST.36 35 37 37 37 35 36 35 35 36
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.7 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.28 35 38 36 35 30 28 26 28 26
VRATE KT-FT/1K..28 58 88 97 96 76 66 61 64 70
VENTRATE CAT....PR FR GD GD GD GD GD GD GD GD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
CWR.................65 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 23.
RH..................MAX 76 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 43 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 35 TO 44 MPH DECREASING TO 32 TO 33
MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (149600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO FAIR (57500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......MC CDY MC MC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
WEATHER COV.....LKY CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC
CWR.............70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............62 56 47 43 39 37 34 33 31 30 28 26
RH..............70 66 75 76 70 67 69 66 66 63 66 68
20 FT WIND DIR..W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..14 15 16 16 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 13
20 FT WIND GUST.37 38 41 43 41 41 39 37 37 37 37 36
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 1.9 2.2 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.36 35 37 43 44 40 36 35 33 32 32 33
VRATE KT-FT/1K..87 61 86 144 150 142 118 126 128 119 124 124
VENTRATE CAT....GD GD GD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 38.
RH..................MIN 29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 23 TO 32 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (96300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (154300 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MC MC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............25 24 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 37 36
RH..............65 65 65 59 54 49 43 39 35 32 30 30
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..13 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.35 31 32 32 32 31 30 29 29 28 28 26
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.1 3.9 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.9 6.3 6.3 5.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.32 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 25 23
VRATE KT-FT/1K..118 106 100 100 110 118 132 145 154 154 141 113
VENTRATE CAT....VGD VGD GD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD EXL EXL VGD VGD
FORECASTER...WFO PADUCAH
REQUESTED BY...CRAIG HOISINGTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2605841.0/PAH
.DELDT 03/15/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CRAIG.HOISINGTON@USDA.GOV
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