003
FXUS63 KPAH 211859
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
159 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH
DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORDS POSSIBLY BEING IN JEOPARDY.
- A COLD FRONT TOMORROW EVENING WILL BRING A 25-50% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MAINLY AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.
- TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND BRINGS A
25-40% FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THE EXTREME HIGH PRESSURE HEAT DOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS EDGES INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND TOMORROW BRINGING UNUSUALLY
WARM, SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORDS MAY BE IN
PLAY TODAY AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING THOUGH AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS FRONT ALSO COMES A 25-50%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER (HIGHEST OVER SOUTHWEST IN). BASED ON SOUNDINGS
THERE LOOKS TO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CAP IN PLACE. THIS
MEANS CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LOW, BUT WHAT STORMS DO
MANAGE TO FORM ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE ELEVATED AND HIGH BASED. ANY
THAT CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CAP MAY POSE A RISK FOR
DOWNBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL (1" OR GREATER).
SPC HAS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST IN IS IN A SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPING TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
EAST AROUND MID WEEK, WE START TO SEE A WARM UP AGAIN STARTING
WEDNESDAY AND PEAKING IN THE 80S AGAIN ON THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY (STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES)
AND BRINGS BACK A 25-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL MORE TO BE NAILED DOWN IN THIS TIME
FRAME THOUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES COME BACK DOWN TO AROUND
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CIRRUS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND ARE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY, LATE
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-23 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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