456
FXUS63 KPAH 220459
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1159 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH
DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORDS POSSIBLY BEING IN JEOPARDY.
- A COLD FRONT TOMORROW EVENING WILL BRING A 25-50% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MAINLY AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.
- TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND BRINGS A
25-40% FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THE EXTREME HIGH PRESSURE HEAT DOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS EDGES INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND TOMORROW BRINGING UNUSUALLY
WARM, SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORDS MAY BE IN
PLAY TODAY AND TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING THOUGH AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS FRONT ALSO COMES A 25-50%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER (HIGHEST OVER SOUTHWEST IN). BASED ON SOUNDINGS
THERE LOOKS TO BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CAP IN PLACE. THIS
MEANS CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LOW, BUT WHAT STORMS DO
MANAGE TO FORM ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE ELEVATED AND HIGH BASED. ANY
THAT CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CAP MAY POSE A RISK FOR
DOWNBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL (1" OR GREATER).
SPC HAS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST IN IS IN A SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPING TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
EAST AROUND MID WEEK, WE START TO SEE A WARM UP AGAIN STARTING
WEDNESDAY AND PEAKING IN THE 80S AGAIN ON THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY (STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES)
AND BRINGS BACK A 25-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL MORE TO BE NAILED DOWN IN THIS TIME
FRAME THOUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES COME BACK DOWN TO AROUND
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 22Z-04Z. INCLUDED PROB30 -SHRA
AT KMVN FROM 23Z-03Z, AND VCSH WITH PROB30 TSRA AT KEVV/KOWB
BETWEEN 23Z-05Z. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH PRECIPITATION, AND
MAY LINGER AT KOWB/KEVV BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 3-8KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 8-13KTS WITH GUSTS OF
16-22KTS AFTER 13Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW/N WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...RST
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