157
FXUS63 KPAH 051144
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
644 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOLISH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL SEE EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER
PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE QUAD STATE EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION AS WEST WINDS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. ALTHOUGH LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S OVER PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE
EACH MORNING FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE 00Z ECENS AND
GEFS DO NOT INDICATE ANY POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE IN THIS PERIOD.
A SUBTLE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE QUAD STATE. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THERE IS ALSO A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY REACH THE I-64 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE QUAD STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK, WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A NICE WARM UP INTO THE 70S, WITH THE 00Z
ENSEMBLES INDICATING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF AT LEAST 70 DEGREES
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE ECENS IS BULLISH IN
SOME 80S SHOWING UP OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH 40-60% CHANCES IN THE
SOUTH SATURDAY, AND 50-70% CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE REGION
SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND IS NOT SO HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ATTEMPT TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OVER THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK, BUT A NORTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM MAY PUSH A BOUNDARY
INTO THE QUAD STATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEREFORE, CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
OUR SOUTH, AND THAT SHOULD SEVERELY LIMIT RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO, CONVECTION
MAY HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY REACHES
THE QUAD STATE.
THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
QUAD STATE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM SETTLING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESET THE PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A DRY AND WARM
WEEKEND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR 80 DEGREE
READINGS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS NBM POP FORECAST IS LIKELY TOO LOW LATE THIS
WEEK AND TOO HIGH NEXT WEEKEND. IT WILL EVENTUALLY CATCH ON,
BUT IN THE MEANTIME JUST KNOW THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
THE TAFS ARE VFR, BUT A BRIEF MVFR CEILING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT AT THE NORTHERN SITES AROUND 15Z. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE WITH MIXING THIS MORNING AND GUSTS UP TO 20KTS
WILL BE COMMON AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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