416
FXUS63 KPAH 061806
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
106 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
- A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY
(20-40%) AND SATURDAY (15-30%), MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
A DRY COLD WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE MAIN IMPACT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT BUT STEADY WIND FORECASTS, CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME IN TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S (WHERE A FROST ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED)
EITHER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES EAST OF THERE REGION, WARM AND
SOUTHERN RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, AND A
STEADY WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, BUT THE
EXPECTATION IS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT IT WILL ENCOUNTER RESISTANCE
FROM THE H5 RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST.
RIGHT NOW, A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY
(20-40%) AND SATURDAY (15-30%), BUT ONLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER. ADDITIONALLY, SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THIS COULD BRING A
MORE APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF SOAKING RAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
THE TAFS ARE VFR. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM
THE NW THIS AFTERNOON TO THE N AND EVENTUALLY NE BY 6-12Z
TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 7-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS AT EVV AT OWB. AFTER RELAXING TO 4-8 KTS OVERNIGHT,
WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS AFTER 14Z TUESDAY,
WITH GUSTS TO 16-20 KTS POSSIBLE AT CGI AND PAH. SOME SCT-BKN
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL BE INVOF MVN, EVV, AND OWB AFTER
09-12Z WITH BASES AROUND 8-12KFT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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