611
FXUS63 KPAH 062131
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
431 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
- A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY
(20-40%) AND SATURDAY (15-30%), MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
A DRY COLD WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE MAIN IMPACT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT BUT STEADY WIND FORECASTS, CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME IN TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S (WHERE A FROST ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED)
EITHER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES EAST OF THERE REGION, WARM AND
SOUTHERN RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, AND A
STEADY WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, BUT THE
EXPECTATION IS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT IT WILL ENCOUNTER RESISTANCE
FROM THE H5 RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST.
RIGHT NOW, A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY
(20-40%) AND SATURDAY (15-30%), BUT ONLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER. ADDITIONALLY, SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THIS COULD BRING A
MORE APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF SOAKING RAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
AS A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFERS A REINFORCING
COOL SHOT UPON TAKING ITS HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, EXPECT
SCT-BKN VFR BASES TO ENTER THE FORECAST PICTURE OVER MAILY THE
BACK HALF OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL ALSO SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO
THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, HEADING THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS TMRW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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