325
FXUS63 KPAH 111121
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
621 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY 10-20 DEGREES
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
- OTHER THAN A SMALL CHANCE (10-20%) OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
- PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE FORECAST MONDAY (30-50%) AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY (30-50%), THURSDAY (40-60%), AND FRIDAY
(30-50%).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN PERSISTING RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND
TROUGHING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. INITIALLY, SURFACE LOW
DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ATTEMPT PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW, BUT WILL ENCOUNTER RESISTANCE FROM THE RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A
COLD FRONT OR TOO TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND ROUGHLY 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNTIL THE NEXT WEEK, WHEN A COOL DOWN BACK
TO TYPICAL MID-APRIL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST.
SURFACE WARM FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTH
LATER TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT THE GREAT MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL STAY DRY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND VERY WARM (NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S) AS THE RIDGING INCREASES. A COLD FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY, BUT IT WILL WASH OUT AS
IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE. WHILE THE REGION HAS A 30-50% CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST NOW, THIS MAY BE OVERDONE,
AND FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LIGHT (ONLY 0.10" OR
LESS). TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S, NEAR RECORD HIGH VALUES AGAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THE RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN, AND A COLD FRONT WITH
SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BEING TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. AT
THIS TIME, THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ON THURSDAY, SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR WEDNESDAY SLIP
A DAY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER
INTO FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THIS IS LIKELY AN ARTIFACT OF
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND WILL TREND
DRIER AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WHILE ANY RAIN WILL BE
HELPFUL FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY EXPECTED ABOUT HEAVY RAINFALL PROSPECTS. THE NBM
ENSEMBLE ONLY SHOWS A 25-50% OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A HALF
INCH DURING THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY UNSETTLED PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS, LIGHT FOG, AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
PRESENT THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE REGION. THE LOWEST CLOUD BASES WILL BE
INVOF EVV AND OWB WHERE CIGS WILL BE IFR OR LOW MVFR THROUGH
14-16Z BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR. WINDS WILL BE AROUND
3-7 KTS FROM THE NE THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE E
AND SE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND REMAINING LIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
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