561
FXUS63 KPAH 270754
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS ON TRACK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONG TORNADOES, VERY LARGE HAIL, AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE. AN INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE QUAD STATE THIS
MORNING, THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE BEGINS.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS 25-40
MPH. A WIND ADVISORY FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON (~50% CHANCE).
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. VERY LARGE HAIL (>2") AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, BUT A FEW TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- IT WILL BE WARM AGAIN TODAY, BUT THE EARLY RAINFALL COULD HOLD
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN TO NORMAL OR JUST BELOW
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL MOVE
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IT SHOULD BE RUNNING OUT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY, SO A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CLUSTER DISSIPATING OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY DAYBREAK. IT ALSO DEVELOPS ANOTHER LINE OF
STORMS THAT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THIS AREA CONTINUES INTO WEST KENTUCKY AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATES OVER THE PENNYRILE LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO UNDER 500J/KG, SO THE STORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY BE ELEVATED. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS, BUT SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
THERE IS PLENTY OF FLOW AND FORCING FOR THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER
OVER THE QUAD STATE BEHIND THIS MORNING'S SYSTEM. AS THE
ASSOCIATED MCV CONTINUES EAST, SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT
CONVECTION OVER THE QUAD STATE UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z. MOST OF THE
00Z AND LATER CAM DATA DEVELOPS SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE ABSURDLY STRONG WITH CAPE
OVER 3000J/KG AND 0-3KM SRH 300-400M2S2. THE RRFS HAS STP VALUES
FROM 5-10 OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE GENERAL TREND IN THE
CAMS IS FOR STORMS TO REMAIN DISCRETE OR POSSIBLY FORM INTO
SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WHERE THEY CAN HOLD ONTO THEIR SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
TORNADO (UP TO EF-3) THREAT. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, BUT THE
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
THE PENNYRILE IN WEST KENTUCKY, SO THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE LATE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE 00Z ECENS HAS A 90% OR GREATER CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS REACHING
AT LEAST 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND IT USUALLY VERIFIES WELL.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION, WE DECIDED TO CAP
GUSTS TO 39 MPH FOR NOW AND WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES LATER
THIS MORNING. THE DAY SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE THE NEED FOR A WIND
ADVISORY LATER TODAY.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A SURFACE WAVE THROUGH THE
QUAD STATE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THE SHEAR HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. THERE SHOULD BE STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS AND SOME SUBSTANTIAL
DOWNDRAFT CAPE, SO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE A STRONG
POSSIBILITY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A TORNADO THREAT, AS THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING.
WITH THREE ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, 2-3"
OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, AND SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD CERTAINLY HELP THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
COULD DEVELOP WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS.
WE SHOULD BE DRY WITH NORTH WINDS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NORMAL OR BELOW THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY, AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE NBM STILL HAS
SOME 20-30% POPS IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY, BUT THE 00Z GUIDANCE
KEEPS THAT PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD STATE. THERE
IS NO QPF.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
ON AND OFF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
TIMING OF BEST CHANCES VERY CHALLENGING. SHRA AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
TSRA POSSIBLE NEAR KCGI/KPAH/KMVN AFTER 11Z, WITH A LULL LATE
MORNING. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT KEVV/KOWB. AT ALL
SITES, CHANCES INCREASING LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
00Z, WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS.
MVFR/IFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH STORMS, AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10KTS INCREASING TO 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25KTS, SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...RST
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