005
FXUS63 KPAH 280727
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
227 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE QUAD STATE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
- BREEZY NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL SEND TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS OR BELOW THROUGH SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE QUAD STATE, BUT A PERIOD OR
TWO OF LIGHT RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT (15-20% CHANCE) OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
15-30% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE QUAD STATE BY
DAYBREAK TODAY, AND MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.
MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL FOR TODAY, AS INSTABILITY IS NOW MUCH MORE LIMITED.
THE RRFS, HREF, AND HRRR CONFINE ANY TANGIBLE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND SEVERE STORM THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
REGION FROM AROUND CARTER COUNTY TO CALLOWAY COUNTY IN THE 4-8
PM TIME FRAME. LATER AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND SOME
SEMBLANCE OF A SURFACE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE, INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY LIMITED, RESULTING IN MORE
SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE FAR
EAST.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY CHANGE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY, AND
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT A
MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAN IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
BY MUCH OF THE CAM GUIDANCE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND
TORNADO THREATS DEPICTED IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK CERTAINLY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. NEEDLESS TO SAY AFTER
MONDAY'S EVENT, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE QUAD
STATE WEDNESDAY. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT THE NBM STILL HAS A 15-20%
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY, BUT
GUIDANCE BRINGS A COUPLE OF IMPULSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
THAT COULD BRING SOME CONVECTION INTO THE QUAD STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY (15-30% CHANCE). SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE THE
GULF LOCKED UP TIGHT, SO MOISTURE WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED WHICH
SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GET ANY TANGIBLE PRECIPITATION TO
THE QUAD STATE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 07Z, AND SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN MAINLY 02Z-07Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS. AWAY FROM STORMS AND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS BETWEEN 3500-9000, BECOMING SCT
AFTER 08-11Z. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KTS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5-12KTS AFTER
08Z, WITH DECREASING SPEEDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA RETURN
VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KCGI/KPAH.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...RST
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