044
FXUS63 KPAH 290724
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
224 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A NICE COOL DOWN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER AIR WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST SUNRISE OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
THE PENNYRILE, OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHUNT ANY RAINFALL FRIDAY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD STATE, AND BRING A STEADY SUPPLY OF COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME A
SOURCE OF IMPULSES WHICH THE MODELS FEEL ARE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY BRING CONVECTION SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE QUAD
STATE. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE FED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION, AND THE 00Z GEFS AND ECENS HAVE 70% OR GREATER
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE QUAD STATE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. THE CURRENT NBM POPS ARE ONLY 15-30% IN THAT
PERIOD, AND ONLY MAX OUT AT 30-40% ON WEDNESDAY. GULF MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED TO START, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NBM MAY BE RIGHT TO LIMIT POPS THROUGH
MONDAY, BUT IT IS LIKELY TOO DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLIGHT ZONES, SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE AND FURTHER
DETERIORATE FLIGHT CONDITIONS. BASES/CIGS WILL BECOME RESTRICTED
AT TIMES, AND PREDOMINANT OVERNIGHT UPON ITS PASSAGE. VSBYS WILL
RESTRICT TO MVFR AND HAVE LOWER RESTRICTED POTENTIAL. FINALLY
THE PCPN DWINDLES, WINDS PICK UP WITH SOME GUSTINESS OUT OF THE
NORTH, AND WHILE LOW BASES LINGER INTO TMRW, SOME OVERALL
IMPROVEMENTS SHOULD BE NOTED TOWARD IF NOT REALIZED INTO VISUAL
FLIGHT RULES BY/DURING THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
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