585
FXUS63 KPAH 301741
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1241 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL; TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
- A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST IN THE NORTH TONIGHT,
ALONG WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTH/EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY HOLDS OFF
UNTIL TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
A WEAK FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. IT MAY SPARK A
SHOWER OR TWO BUT THE OVERALL COLUMN APPEARS PRETTY DRY, FRONTAL
FORCING IS LIMITED AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO AMOUNT TO MUCH. WE
STAY MOSTLY IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE LOWER-HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT KICKS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AGAIN POSSIBLY SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS. FOR
THE MOST PART THOUGH, DRY, COOLER THAN NORMAL, AND BENIGN
WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THEN EMERGES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
A ZONAL JET MAX PRECEDES A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SENDS AS
FAIRLY SYNOPTICALLY STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA (ALTHOUGH
THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS LIMITED). A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST. MOISTURE RETURN STILL APPEARS LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. TOTAL RAINFALL
WITH THE SYSTEM IS HOVERING AROUND 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN SO UNTIL A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THOUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO BUT
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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