076
FXUS63 KPAH 011824
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
124 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS A 40-60% CHANCE AT LOWS FALLING BELOW 40 DEGREES SUNDAY
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. FROST
FORMATION SEEMS FAIRLY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME THOUGH (15-20%
CHANCE).
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
(20-30% CHANCE) EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- WHILE ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
(MAINLY NORTH), OUR BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE
GIVES US A 70-80% CHANCE AT RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.5" AND ABOUT
A 40-50% CHANCE AT 1".
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A 500MB TROUGH WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PIVOT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE QUAD STATE REGION ON SATURDAY. LIFT AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE INITIAL ACTIVITY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN OUR
NORTH, MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES. LOOKS LIKE SOME VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TOMORROW TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE
AT A FEW STORMS. WHILE ANYWHERE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER TOMORROW, MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR ANYTHING RESIDES
IN THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE REGION.
AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS EAST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. CURRENT GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST ABOUT A 50-60% CHANCE AT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 40 SUNDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. LREF PROBABILITIES DROP OFF QUITE
QUICKLY THOUGH WITH ONLY ABOUT A 15-20% CHANCE AT LOWS FALLING TO 36
OR LOWER, WHICH IS GENERALLY THE MAGIC THRESHOLD FOR FROST
FORMATION. WILL SEE HOW THIS TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO SEE IF
PROBABILITIES INCREASE.
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK,
PARTICULARLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WE MAY SEE INITIAL ACTIVITY
ACROSS OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH TOWARDS OUR AREA. IF WE CAN GET CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE PARAMETER SPACE IN PLACE
COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS. LREF PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE OF
AT LEAST 500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 KTS IS AROUND 50-60% ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CSU-MLP SEVERE PROBS ARE FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST THOUGH, WHICH SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
THE MAIN FRONT AND MID LEVEL WAVE MOVE THROUGH STARTING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS OUR POPS PEAK
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE 60-80% RANGE. GUIDANCE IS REALLY
STRUGGLING TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY
TUESDAY DUE TO LINGERING ACTIVITY AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER EARLIER IN
THE DAY. SO WHILE WE HAVE THE LIFT AND WIND SHEAR IN PLACE, LREF
PROBABILITIES OF OBSERVING MUCAPE OF 500 J/KG IS ONLY 20%. MACHINE
LEARNING DOES HAVE BROAD BRUSH 5% SEVERE PROBS, BUT CURRENTLY DON'T
REALLY SEE MUCH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THAT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
BOUNDARY ENDS UP BEING BY THEN.
TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING MONDAY WHEN WE REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL GUST UP TO 20 KTS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/CALM TONIGHT. SCT CU
IS MOST LIKELY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES
AROUND 6-7KFT. MID CLOUD WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
BASES LOWERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
LOW VFR DECK IN THE 4-5KFT RANGE, BUT THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY
OF FLIRTING WITH MVFR LEVELS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE MORNING.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UP THERE AS WELL. BY AFTERNOON
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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