297
FXUS63 KPAH 211017
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
517 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RAMP BACK UP ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE BRIEF
DRY INTERVALS TODAY AND SATURDAY, WHILE AT LEAST A 50-60%
CHANCE OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY, WITH A 60-90% CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES. FLOODING ISSUES WILL REMAIN MINOR AT MOST
DUE TO THE LONG DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TREND BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WELL INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A 1032 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING
WILL PROVIDE SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. THE CAMS TRY TO DEVELOP ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY PENNYRILE, WITH A
30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON PROGGED BY THE NBM. THE
RELIEF WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG AS A WARM FRONT AND WEAK AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PROBABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA, BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR SATURDAY
WITH ONLY A 15-30% CHANCE OF RAIN ON AVERAGE.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REALLY RAMPS UP AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LIKELY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED BY
THE NBM EACH DAY. THE SIGNAL REMAINS WEAK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AS THE KINEMATICS ARE VERY MEAGER. ANY FLOODING ISSUES
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MINOR AT MOST AS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OCCURRING
OVER A LONG DURATION. THE LREF SUPPORTS A 60-90% CHANCE OF
UPWARDS 3 INCHES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TREND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY MID 80S
BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
AREAS OF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO IFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
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