655
FXUS63 KPAH 220610
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
110 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY
WITH ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS
MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY PENNYRILE. A WEAK SPIN UP
TORNADO AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IS THE MAIN CONCERN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
- TOTAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH A 20-40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 3 INCHES LOCALLY
WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS OCCUR. LOCALIZED MINOR
NUISANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH. INTERVALS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK IN
THEIR D1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK OVER MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
PENNYRILE WHERE WINDS BECOME MORE BACKED AT THE SFC. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SPIN UP TORNADO AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN 15-25 KTS OF SFC-1KM SHEAR, 150-200 M2/S2 OF
SFC-1KM SRH, AND 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WILL BE THE PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN WHEN SOME OF THE
CAMS SHOW A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. GIVEN PWAT'S IN THE
90-95TH PERCENTILE ON THE NAEFS ESAT, LOCALIZED MINOR NUISANCE
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF DRIER WITH ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ON SATURDAY. HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARRIVE IN
THE 50-60% RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY, WITH
RAIN CHANCES PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON ANY GIVEN DAY, BUT THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK MAY BE THE PERIOD TO MONITOR THE MOST AS A MORE POTENT MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. TOTAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES IS
LIKELY BY NEXT THURSDAY WITH A 20-40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 3 INCHES
LOCALLY WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION OCCURS.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE 70S REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S THIS WEEKEND,
GRADUALLY TRENDING INTO THE MID-80S BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
MVFR/IFR CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THIS
TAF ISSUANCE. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
VISIBILITIES MAY BE BRIEFLY REDUCED AS THE HEAVIEST STORMS PASS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...KC
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