413
FXUS63 KPAH 041713
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1213 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD ON
SATURDAY, BUT THE FORECAST NOW LOOKS TO STAY DRY.
- INCREASINGLY MUGGY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARRIVE SUNDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES
(25-75%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AND H5 RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST
WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN NEAR TYPICAL
EARLY JUNE VALUES, SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY THIS WEEKEND, THE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME SUPPRESSED BY DEEPENING TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT, SO SATURDAY
NOW LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT
THIS TIME, POPS WILL RISE TO 25-50% ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY
50-75% CHANCE FOR MONDAY, THEN LINGERING 25-50% POPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY WASHES OUT. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS, TOTAL QPF VALUES
FOR THE SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD HAVE RISEN AROUND 0.75-1.25"
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO, SOUTHWEST IL, AND THE KY PURCHASE REGION.
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE,
SOUTHEAST IL, AND THE KY PENNYRILE, RAINFALL TOTALS CURRENT
STAND AROUND 0.25-0.75". DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE TRENDS, LOCALLY
HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE.
FINALLY, INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
A RETURN OF NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS BEGINNING SATURDAY, WITH
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S VALUES
(VERY GOOEY!) FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE
FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY BUT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. AN EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATELLITE AND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING TILL AROUND SUNSET. SOME HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
TOMORROW WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT /1 AM EDT/ TONIGHT FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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