480
FXUS63 KPAH 050725
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY (50-80%) EACH
DAY. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAIN
FALLING DURING THIS PERIOD.
- DRIER, BUT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
OUR EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY WILL SOON BE COMING TO AN END. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CREEP UPWARD TODAY INTO SATURDAY AS TROUGH
OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND THE BIG
H5 RIDGE OVER THE AREA RETREATS TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT THE GREAT MAJORITY OF
THE REGION SHOULD STAY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TODAY AND THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S SUNDAY. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AS WELL.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND QUITE HUMID CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS THE TROUGH AND
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, VERY MOIST GULF
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION, AND PWAT VALUES WILL
APPROACH 1.75-2.0" (ABOUT THE 90-99TH PERCENTILE). THIS WILL
DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TROPICAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
POPS HAVE STEADILY INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS FOR THIS
PERIOD, AND NOW STAND AROUND 50-80% EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE VERY STICKY, CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S. EFFICIENT WARM RAINFALL PROCESSES WILL HELP BOOST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS, AND THE LATEST NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES
SHOWS A 50-70% CHANCE OF A LEAST 1 INCH OF RAIN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AND A 20-40% CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OR MORE.
BY WEDNESDAY, POPS WILL BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD TO 25-50% AND
FINALLY DRY ON THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL TROUGH YIELDS TO ANOTHER
INTENSIFYING H5 RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. UNFORTUNATELY,
THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE SCOURED OUT, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE MET BY ELEVATED DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THIS WILL BRING OUR
HOTTEST HEAT INDEX VALUES BY THURSDAY, NEARING OR EXCEEDING 100
DEGREES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE TN
VALLEY, UNDERNEATH A BROAD H5 ANTI-CYCLONE THAT PERSISTS OVER
THE SE U.S. THIS MEANS RETURN FLOW SOUTHERLIES AGAIN TMRW,
PERHAPS GUSTING INTO THE TEENS KTS AROUND THE RIDGE'S
PERIPHERAL RIM, ESP KMVN. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST
SCT-BKN VFR BASES POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DH
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