512
FXUS63 KPAH 060604
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
104 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
- HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY (50-80%) EACH
DAY PEAKING SUNDAY MORNING, AND MONDAY EVENING. THERE REMAINS
A50-70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAIN FALLING DURING
THIS PERIOD.
- DRIER, BUT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF BLOCKED UP FLOW ALOFT WITH STABLE AND DRY
CONDITIONS A MORE PRONOUNCED PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS TO BE
UNDERWAY THIS WEEKEND. STRONG AND BROAD TROUGHING ENTERING THE
US WEST COAST IS MOVING A CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES START TO PERK UP AHEAD AND UNDER
THIS TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY DRY FOR THE DAY TODAY BUT THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FROM
PARCELS AROUND 700MB THAT MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRAY SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANCES PEAK SUNDAY MORNING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WITH MODEST JET-LEVEL ASCENT AND AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THEN UNTIL PEAKING ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.8 TO 2.0 BUT BOTH
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INSTABILITY FOR NOW LOOK TOO LIMITED FOR
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS THE PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND MODEST
LOWER LAYER WARM ADVECTION. SEVERE WEATHER ALSO LOOKS PRETTY
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK INSTABILITY AND
RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP AND LOW LAYER SHEAR.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS SURFACE RIDGING SETS UP OVER ITS
CLIMATOLOGICAL DEFAULT POSITION OFF THE EAST COAST AND 500MB
HEIGHTS INCREASE TO AROUND 590 DM WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PUMPING IN SOUPY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
SUMMER TIME FIRMLY GRABS HOLD OF THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS.
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US DOES LOOK TO POTENTIALLY
SEND A FRONT OR WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW THIS WAY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY THIS SYSTEM IN 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
STARTS TO LINE US UP IN A RAINIER STORMIER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 417 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE RIMFIRE BASES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE NEAR
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL STRONG ENOUGH HERE TO
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER. RETURN FLOW
SOUTHERLIES PICK UP AGAIN TMRW, SIMILAR TO TODAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page