101
FXUS63 KPAH 071123
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY PEAKING AT AROUND 70-90%. THE RISK FOR
AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING, PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN/ISOLATED FLOODING ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE.
- THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF WEATHER SO FAR THIS YEAR IS EXPECTED
MIDWEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
- ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (30-50%)
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A SWIRLING DEEP LAYER LOW LUMBERING OVER KS/OK JUMPS OUT AT YOU
AS SOON AS YOU LOOK AT WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING. THAT LOW IS
BEING GUIDED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA BY A SOUTHWESTERLY
80 KT SUBTROPICAL JET MAX OVER AR/TX/LA AND BROADER JET MAXES
AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ALL OF THAT IS DRAGGING
WITH IT A DEEPER/SOUPIER AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS. THAT
AIRMASS GETS IN PLACE BY MIDDAY OR SO AND THE RICHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COULD GET A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA. THERE
IS JUST A LITTLE BIT OF A CAPPING INVERSION INDICATED ABOUT 850
MB AND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SURFACE BASED PARCELS
MAY STILL STRUGGLE TO GET GOING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES START TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AND IS TRENDING A LITTLE STRONGER RUN TO
RUN WITH THAT ADVANCING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET MAX. LOWER-
LEVEL FLOW ALSO INCREASES AFTER SUNSET OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.
IN NET THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR INCREASING TO 20 POSSIBLY 30 KTS IN THE EVENING. SOME
SNEAKY LOW LEVEL CURVATURE ALSO WORKS INTO THE HODOGRAPH OVER
WESTERN SEMO IN THE EARLY EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY BE
A FACTOR ALL DAY BUT DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY AT 70 DEGREES HERE
NOW SO ADDING JUST A LITTLE MORE JUICE TO THAT WOULD RENDER
INSTABILITY ANYWAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
DURING THE DAY (WIND/HAIL) AND POSSIBLY MINI-SUPERCELL TYPE THREATS
AFTER DARK TOMORROW NIGHT OVER SEMO.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT. PLAN VIEW
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT DEPICT MUCH DEEPER LAYER SHEAR BUT
THESE CLOSED LOWS CAN OVERPRODUCE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD AND UNDER
THEM SO WE WILL NEED TO BE WARY OF SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL - WITH
SIMILAR MECHANISMS, MORE OF A MINI-SUPERCELL TYPE THREAT - ON
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SETUP ON MONDAY LOOKS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A SATURATED COLUMN AND MODEL
PWAT VALUES 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES. HREF PMMS ARE ALSO GETTING MORE
IMPRESSIVE WITH SOME 2 AND 3 INCH SWATHS. OVERALL DETERMINISTIC
QPF REMAINS FAIRLY MODEST BUT WITH SOME TRAINING OR REPETITIVE
THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING LOOKS TO BE IN PLAY.
EVENTUALLY ALL THAT MESS CLEARS OUT AND WE GET HOT AND MUGGY FOR
A FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.
IT IS NOT QUITE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD RIGHT NOW BUT IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE MORE OPPRESSIVE THAN ANYTHING WE HAVE HAD SINCE
LAST SUMMER.
A FAIRLY SHARP SHORTWAVE IN A BROAD JET MAX PASSES WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TRACKING A LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THAT SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP WATCHING THIS FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER RISK BUT THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY OVERLAP DOESN'T LOOK QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT
DID 12-24 HOURS AGO.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A FEW MORE HOURS OF HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE THINGS
GET MESSIER LATER TODAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING
OF SHOWERS/STORMS AS THEY WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT SCATTERED
BUT A MUCH MORE HUMID AND SOUPY AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE AROUND
CGI/PAH BY 17-19Z AND THEN UP TO MVN/EVV/OWB BY 23Z OR SO AND
WITH IT AN ALMOST IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST. LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS WOULD ALSO BE
REASONABLE TO EXPECT ALTHOUGH THE CEILING WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT
BOUNCY AS THE AIRMASS ESTABLISHES ITSELF BECOMING STEADILY LOWER
AS YOU APPROACH AND GO PAST SUNSET.
A LITTLE BIT OF A LULL APPEARS POSSIBLE AFTER A FIRST WAVE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BEFORE A SECOND RELATIVE PEAK IN PRECIP POSSIBLY
BY 08 OR 09Z. WAS TOO FAR INTO THE FUTURE IN A LONG TAF TO GET
TOO CUTE WITH IT IN THE 12Z PACKAGE BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE
ADDED/ADJUSTED TO AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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