845
FXUS63 KPAH 072158
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
458 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON, PEAKING AROUND 70-90% MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES
INCREASES ON MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR.
RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO TUESDAY BEFORE TRENDING DRIER UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A 50-70% CHANCE.
- THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE SEASON BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARING 90 DEGREES. A COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE AROUND 100
DEGREES THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME RELIEF ON FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. POCKETS OF 1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE COMBINED
WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.0-8.0 C/KM AND 25-35 KTS
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNBURSTS. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN PWATS ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE AROUND 2 INCHES
AND SFC MIXING RATIOS NEAR 18 G/KG THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
CAUSING RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES PER HOURS. RAIN
CHANCES PEAK AROUND 70-90% MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
FA WHEN THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUE WILL BE
HIGHER. THIS IS WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE GREATER WITH LOWER CORFIDI STORM MOTION VECTORS. DESPITE
FFG IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE THAT WILL HELP TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
ISSUES, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR 3-5 INCHES LOCALLY OVER
A SHORT DURATION THAT WOULD BE IMPACTFUL. WITH STORMS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING, THIS MAY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL, POSING MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN RISK VERSUS THE MARGINAL
SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO TUESDAY BEFORE TRENDING DRIER FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
FA. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE SEASON IS PROGGED TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 90 DEGREES. A
COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO RISE AROUND 100 DEGREES. NBM IS STILL BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THE HEAT RISK INDEX (CATEGORY 2-3) DOES
SUGGEST MOST WITHOUT COOLING AND HYDRATION WILL BE MORE
SENSITIVE THAN WHAT IS TYPICAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
50-70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN RETURN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME RELIEF TO END THE WEEK ON
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
AFTER A QUIET EARLY EVENING, WITH SCT-BKN MAINLY VFR BASES,
ANTICIPATE INCREASED SHOWERS/STORMS PROBABILITIES AROUND AND ESP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO
CIGS/VSBYS; BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH A
STRONGER STORM. THIS MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO/THRU
THE DAY TMRW.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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