360
FXUS63 KPAH 081110
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
610 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BATCHES OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND SOME RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER (TORNADO/WIND) ARE EXPECTED IN WAVES TODAY.
THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS INCREASING
AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
- THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE SEASON BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARING 90 DEGREES. A COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE AROUND 100
DEGREES THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME RELIEF ON FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND MAY
PRODUCE ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN AND MUTED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE IS MESSY AND UNSETTLED AND THE
FORECAST IS SIMILAR. THERE IS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING
INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND A SHARPLY DIFFLUENT ZONE TO ITS EAST
MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES RIGHT NOW. UNDERNEATH
THAT DISTURBANCE LIES JUST PURE SOUP WITH DEWPOINTS AT THE
SURFACE 70 TO 75 DEGREES WITH MORE ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALL THE TIME. NEW CONVECTION IS INITIATING IN
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BEHIND THE UPPER LOW WHERE 3-6 KM LAPSE RATES
PRESUMABLY HAVE STEEPENED A LITTLE. THERE IS A NARROW AREA OF
REASONABLY FAVORABLE DEEP AND LOW LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELL TYPE ACTIVITY OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING
AND IF THAT AREA OF DIFFLUENCE CAN HELP INITIATE SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION A BRIEF SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADO THREAT MAY EMERGE
BEFORE SUNRISE.
AS THE DAY WEARS ON THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE
ACTUAL LOW GETS OVERHEAD BUT RESIDUAL DIFFLUENCE BELOW 300MB AND
THE SOUPY AIRMASS LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. AS THAT IS OCCURRING THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN
STARTS TO FEEL BROADER TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES KEEPING A
MOIST CONVEYOR BELT GOING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A WEAK FRONT ALOFT LOOKS TO ACT AS A FOCI FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. GIVEN THE 2.1 TO 2.3 INCH PWATS INDICATED AND THE
LARGE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH RAINFALL WOULD BE ABLE TO BE
EXTREMELY EFFICIENT. EACH OF THE LAST FEW EVENINGS AS THIS LOW
HAS RUMBLED AROUND THE AREA TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST IT HAS
SPARKED A FEW SUPERCELLS AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL. I THINK
WE WILL HAVE TO BE ON GUARD FOR THAT TO HAPPEN ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
THE BEST RISK FOR ANY SEVERE WILL ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH LOOKS TO TIME OUT OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE A FEW DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE.
HREF PMMS HAVE STEADILY BEEN TRENDING UPWARD ON PRECIP AMOUNTS
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME 3 TO 4 INCH SWATHS.
THIS COUPLED WITH THE OVERALL PICTURE SUGGESTS ENOUGH POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING THAT WILL HOIST A WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
POP TRENDS ARE UP A LITTLE ON TUESDAY MORNING AS MODEST MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS IMPACT THE AREA. MLCAPES 2500-3000 J/KG WITH
FAIRLY WEAK DEEP SHEAR, SUGGESTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME PULSE SEVERE
THREAT. THE HIGHEST HEAT LEVELS OF THE YEAR SO FAR FOLLOW WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
AND MODEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A COLD FRONT CLEARS BUT ALMOST
IMMEDIATELY RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR LATE SUNDAY FOR
NOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK DODGY TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD. ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM AROUND MARION TO
HOPKINSVILLE WILL PROBABLY GET A BOOST AFTER SUNRISE AS MAY
OTHER CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY. THE FOCUS OF THAT ACTIVITY
WILL TRACK STEADILY NORTHEAST. IT IS LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON LASTING
INTO THE EVENING. SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY LEAD TO IFR OR WORSE
VISIBILITY FOR AN HOUR OR MORE. PREVAILING CEILINGS SHOULD BE
BETWEEN ABOUT 1200 AND 2400 FT WITH SIMILAR LEVELS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD GUSTY WIND MAY
BECOME A FACTOR IN CONVECTION. GENERALLY EXPECTING SOME SORT OF
TRAILING PRECIP OR OFF AND ON SHOWERS TO THEN PERSIST INTO MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>083-085>087-089>091.
MO...NONE.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT /NOON EDT/ THIS MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ007>022.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
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