014
FXUS63 KPAH 081739
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1240 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- BATCHES OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND SOME RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER (TORNADO/WIND) ARE EXPECTED IN WAVES TODAY.
THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS INCREASING
AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
- THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE SEASON BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARING 90 DEGREES. A COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE AROUND 100
DEGREES THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME RELIEF ON FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND MAY
PRODUCE ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN AND MUTED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE IS MESSY AND UNSETTLED AND THE
FORECAST IS SIMILAR. THERE IS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING
INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND A SHARPLY DIFFLUENT ZONE TO ITS EAST
MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES RIGHT NOW. UNDERNEATH
THAT DISTURBANCE LIES JUST PURE SOUP WITH DEWPOINTS AT THE
SURFACE 70 TO 75 DEGREES WITH MORE ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALL THE TIME. NEW CONVECTION IS INITIATING IN
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BEHIND THE UPPER LOW WHERE 3-6 KM LAPSE RATES
PRESUMABLY HAVE STEEPENED A LITTLE. THERE IS A NARROW AREA OF
REASONABLY FAVORABLE DEEP AND LOW LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELL TYPE ACTIVITY OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING
AND IF THAT AREA OF DIFFLUENCE CAN HELP INITIATE SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION A BRIEF SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADO THREAT MAY EMERGE
BEFORE SUNRISE.
AS THE DAY WEARS ON THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE
ACTUAL LOW GETS OVERHEAD BUT RESIDUAL DIFFLUENCE BELOW 300MB AND
THE SOUPY AIRMASS LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. AS THAT IS OCCURRING THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN
STARTS TO FEEL BROADER TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES KEEPING A
MOIST CONVEYOR BELT GOING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A WEAK FRONT ALOFT LOOKS TO ACT AS A FOCI FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. GIVEN THE 2.1 TO 2.3 INCH PWATS INDICATED AND THE
LARGE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH RAINFALL WOULD BE ABLE TO BE
EXTREMELY EFFICIENT. EACH OF THE LAST FEW EVENINGS AS THIS LOW
HAS RUMBLED AROUND THE AREA TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST IT HAS
SPARKED A FEW SUPERCELLS AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL. I THINK
WE WILL HAVE TO BE ON GUARD FOR THAT TO HAPPEN ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
THE BEST RISK FOR ANY SEVERE WILL ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH LOOKS TO TIME OUT OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE A FEW DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE.
HREF PMMS HAVE STEADILY BEEN TRENDING UPWARD ON PRECIP AMOUNTS
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME 3 TO 4 INCH SWATHS.
THIS COUPLED WITH THE OVERALL PICTURE SUGGESTS ENOUGH POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING THAT WILL HOIST A WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.
POP TRENDS ARE UP A LITTLE ON TUESDAY MORNING AS MODEST MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS IMPACT THE AREA. MLCAPES 2500-3000 J/KG WITH
FAIRLY WEAK DEEP SHEAR, SUGGESTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME PULSE SEVERE
THREAT. THE HIGHEST HEAT LEVELS OF THE YEAR SO FAR FOLLOW WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
AND MODEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A COLD FRONT CLEARS BUT ALMOST
IMMEDIATELY RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR LATE SUNDAY FOR
NOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHILE SHOWERS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE QUAD STATE TO THE NORTHEAST,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AT THIS
TIME. CIGS ARE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR WITH PATCHES OF IFR IN THE EAST.
VSBY DROPS WILL ACCOMPANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE EVENING.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY IN THE
MORNING ONCE SHOWERS END. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD AND GENERALLY HOVER AROUND
10KTS DURING THE DAY AND A LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR ILZ075>078-080>083-085>087-089>091.
MO...NONE.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT /11 AM EDT/ THIS MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ007>022.
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...PAH
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