253
FXUS63 KPAH 091919
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
219 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE SEASON BEGINS TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARING 90 DEGREES. A COMBINATION OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE AROUND
105 DEGREES AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
RELIEF ON FRIDAY.
- WITH THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS PROVIDING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
WITH WINDS TO 60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES AGAIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AS THE MAIN THREATS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
STORMS ARE FLARING UP THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AIDED IN PART BY A ZONE OF
CONVERGENCE. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS PROLIFIC WITH THESE STORMS,
AND PW VALUES ABOVE 2.0 INCH MAKE FOR EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS.
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS WITH TRAINING STORMS.
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500J/KG WILL PROVIDE ROBUST INSTABILITY,
THOUGH SHEAR IS A BIT LACKING AT 20-25KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
GENERALLY PULSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER, WHILE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE QUAD STATE IS IN A
MARGINAL RISK. MUGGY DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
POTENTIALLY REACHING 80 IN A FEW SPOTS, AND HIGHS IN THE MID-80S
TO NEAR 90, WILL LIFT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 100-105 IN THE
SOUTHWEST, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES FAVORED IN SEMO AND ADJACENT
AREAS WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SEVERAL MODELS SEND AN MCS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. AS A RESULT OF THE
TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS, THE HIGHEST QPF TOTALS ARE LOCATED IN THE
EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE AREA, THOUGH CURRENT ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SEMO HAS ALREADY WELL EXCEEDED THE TRIVIAL AMOUNTS
IN THE NBM (ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR ONGOING STORM ACTIVITY). CAUTION IS ADVISED ANYWHERE HEAVY
RAIN IS OCCURRING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A
BRIEF RESURGENCE OF UPPER RIDGING WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH'S EXIT, BEFORE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY BROAD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO; HOWEVER, DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN TERMS OF HOW
MUCH ACTIVITY REMAINS WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES. AN SPC SLIGHT RISK
THURSDAY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COVERS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH SHOULD DECREASE IN POTENTIAL AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. BRIEF DRYING IS FORECAST FRIDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TODAY RISE TO THE LOWER 90S
MIDWEEK, THEN RETURN TO THE 80S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS IN
THE MID-70S THROUGH MIDWEEK LOWER TO THE 60S AFTERWARDS. HEAT
INDICES OF 100-105 ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PORTIONS
OF SEMO ARE IN LEVEL 3-MAJOR HEATRISK TODAY WHILE THE REST OF
THE QUAD STATE IS IN LEVEL 2-MODERATE. MOST OF THE QUAD STATE
RISES TO LEVEL 3-MAJOR FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAT
PRODUCTS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE QUAD STATE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, AND SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PERIODS OF IFR VSBY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS, ALONG WITH VARIABLE WIND GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING.
AFTERWARDS, DRY CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURN ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ080-084-088-
092-093.
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ002>022.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>004.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL
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