998
FXUS63 KPAH 092324
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
624 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE SEASON BEGINS TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARING 90 DEGREES. A COMBINATION OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE AROUND
105 DEGREES AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
RELIEF ON FRIDAY.
- WITH THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS PROVIDING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
WITH WINDS TO 60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES AGAIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AS THE MAIN THREATS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
STORMS ARE FLARING UP THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AIDED IN PART BY A ZONE OF
CONVERGENCE. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS PROLIFIC WITH THESE STORMS,
AND PW VALUES ABOVE 2.0 INCH MAKE FOR EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS.
FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS WITH TRAINING STORMS.
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500J/KG WILL PROVIDE ROBUST INSTABILITY,
THOUGH SHEAR IS A BIT LACKING AT 20-25KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
GENERALLY PULSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER, WHILE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE QUAD STATE IS IN A
MARGINAL RISK. MUGGY DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
POTENTIALLY REACHING 80 IN A FEW SPOTS, AND HIGHS IN THE MID-80S
TO NEAR 90, WILL LIFT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 100-105 IN THE
SOUTHWEST, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES FAVORED IN SEMO AND ADJACENT
AREAS WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SEVERAL MODELS SEND AN MCS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. AS A RESULT OF THE
TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS, THE HIGHEST QPF TOTALS ARE LOCATED IN THE
EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE AREA, THOUGH CURRENT ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SEMO HAS ALREADY WELL EXCEEDED THE TRIVIAL AMOUNTS
IN THE NBM (ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR ONGOING STORM ACTIVITY). CAUTION IS ADVISED ANYWHERE HEAVY
RAIN IS OCCURRING.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A
BRIEF RESURGENCE OF UPPER RIDGING WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH'S EXIT, BEFORE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY BROAD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO; HOWEVER, DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN TERMS OF HOW
MUCH ACTIVITY REMAINS WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES. AN SPC SLIGHT RISK
THURSDAY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST COVERS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH SHOULD DECREASE IN POTENTIAL AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. BRIEF DRYING IS FORECAST FRIDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TODAY RISE TO THE LOWER 90S
MIDWEEK, THEN RETURN TO THE 80S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS IN
THE MID-70S THROUGH MIDWEEK LOWER TO THE 60S AFTERWARDS. HEAT
INDICES OF 100-105 ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PORTIONS
OF SEMO ARE IN LEVEL 3-MAJOR HEAT RISK TODAY WHILE THE REST OF
THE QUAD STATE IS IN LEVEL 2-MODERATE. MOST OF THE QUAD STATE
RISES TO LEVEL 3-MAJOR FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAT
PRODUCTS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE EVV/OWB TERMINALS LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, THE CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE PROB30 GROUP. IN FACT, A GOOD PORTION OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
TAF SITES. THE REST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY
BRIEF REDUCTION FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ080-084-088-
092-093.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>004.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ014>022.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page