540
FXUS63 KPAH 102218
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
518 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE AROUND
100-105 DEGREES AT TIMES ON THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES AGAIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AS THE MAIN THREATS.
- THE SOUP RETURNS BY SATURDAY WITH PERSISTENT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVERTISED PATTERN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IS KEEPING CONDITIONS
QUIET THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. THIS IS PRODUCING
HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100'S JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOCALLY LOOKS SIMILAR ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWERING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE IMPACTED BY
CLOUD COVER TOMORROW BUT THE FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS.
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND QUAD STATE.
AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED, UPPER FORCING WILL BE WELL
TO THE NORTH WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES. CONVECTION
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WORK ITS WAY EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH A SMALL WINDOW OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
OVERLAP TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WITH MAINLY A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LEAVES GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER
FLOW IN PLACE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS NEARLY DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HEAVY RAIN PATTERN
CONTINUES TO APPEAR POSSIBLE IN GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THOUGH THE
LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
DIURNAL BASES FEW-SCT TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO SCT-BKN TMRW WITH
LOW-END VFR CIGS POTENTIAL DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. SOUTH
WINDS TMRW MAY PICK UP A LITTLE GUSTINESS AS WELL AS OUR NEXT
WEATHER-MAKING SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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