153
FXUS63 KPAH 130541
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1241 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LIKELY TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE BOTH
POTENTIAL CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST CONCERN. THERE
IS ROUGHLY A 20-30% CHANCE AT RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 2"
ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE REGION.
- EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND LESS HUMID. THERE
IS A VERY HIGH CHANCE (GREATER THAN 90%) AT DEW POINTS REMAINING
BELOW 60 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY! THIS APPEARS SHORT-
LIVED THOUGH AS HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAY UNFOLD FROM MID WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
POTENTIALLY. THERE IS ROUGHLY A 40-60% CHANCE AT RAINFALL
TOTALS EXCEEDING 3" OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST ONE, BUT POTENTIALLY TWO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS PROBABLE TO OUR WEST ACROSS MISSOURI THIS MORNING INTO
MIDDAY AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS OF SORTS AS IT
PUSHES INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG
WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
TO BE THE GREATEST CONCERN. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS FIRST ROUND
EVOLVES, THERE MAY BE ANOTHER MCS THAT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR
AREA BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THIS
SECOND ROUND A BIT MORE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTHWEST THOUGH, WHICH IS
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IF THE AFTERNOON ROUND MUDDLES UP THE
INSTABILITY FIELD AND SHIFTS IT SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. CERTAINLY A
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 2" WHICH WILL LEAD
TO VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS FROM THE STORMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS LENDS TO AN INCREASED
CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER, GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY WE HAVE
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AXIS MAY SET
UP (AND IT VERY WELL COULD BE OFF TO OUR WEST). THE HRRR IS
CERTAINLY RATHER CONCERNING WITH ITS SWATH OF 3-5" THROUGH THE HEART
OF THE AREA, BUT IT IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE CAMS. CONTEMPLATED
A FLOOD WATCH, BUT IN THE END HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW, AND
HOPEFULLY NEW GUIDANCE IN THE MORNING CAN LEND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
WHETHER ONE IS NEEDED OR NOT. NBM HAS ROUGHLY A 20-30% CHANCE AT
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2" ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A DRY
AFTERNOON AS LOWER HUMIDITY BEGINS TO INVADE THE REGION. DEW POINTS
FALL INTO THE 50S LATER IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHWEST AND THEN FILTER
DOWN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 ON SUNDAY AND ONLY BE IN THE MID
70S ON MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED FROM MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LREF PROBABILITIES SHOW A 40-60% CHANCE OF
AT LEAST 3" OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 450 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A MORE TRANQUIL/BENIGN PATTERN IN PLACE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TMRW.
THIS WILL INTRODUCE AND LOWER VFR BASES TO MVFR CIGS AS
SHRA/TSRA BECOME MORE PROBABLE, ESP ENTERING AND DURING THE
PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE INCREASED PROBS FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKEWISE BRING ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS
IF/WHERE THEY OCCUR.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
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