936
FXUS63 KPAH 261936
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
236 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3"
POSSIBLE AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3-6" POSSIBLE.
- THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING'S SEVERE CHANCES LOOK TO BE MORE
LIMITED IN NATURE, BUT STILL SOMETHING TO WATCH.
- SUNDAY ONWARD BRINGS A MAJOR HEAT WAVE WITH A PATTERN SHIFT.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AFTER A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS MORNING, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP OVER SEMO AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST WHILE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THIS
EVENING WITH A RELATIVE LULL OVERNIGHT. THEN AS A SFC LOW SLIDES
ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING'S SEVERE
CONCERNS LOOK TO BE MORE LIMITED AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY RECOVERY THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.
THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MORE OF THE HYDRO THREAT THROUGH
TOMORROW. MOST OF THE AREA IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PRIOR RAINFALL.
THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE MORE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. TOMORROW A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGHT SET UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA AND WOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
TRAINING STORMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED CONSIDERABLE OR
MAJOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THOSE AREAS. IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS
ALREADY FALLEN, AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE.
THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S
STARTING ON SUNDAY WITH MID 90S STARTING ON MONDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S WHICH
WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY OR EVEN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL BE
NECESSARY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING, STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO FIRE UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON (CURRENTLY OVER SEMO
MOVING NORTHEAST). CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL THE
TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS, THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
CIGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MVFR
POCKETS, SOME IFR POCKETS, AND LARGE VFR AREAS WITH MULTIPLE
LAYERS TO THE CLOUD DECK. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VARY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY AND
MODEST, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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