100
FXUS63 KPAH 281719
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1219 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING EAST. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE UNLIKELY BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS.
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. HEAT INDICES UP TO 105 ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 105 AND 110 MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS HEATWAVE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE 4TH OF
JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
RADAR IS QUIET THIS MORNING AFTER AN EVENTFUL AND BUSY
AFTERNOON YESTERDAY. WE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER BAND OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE AFTER 7-9Z TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH EXACT PLACEMENT CONTINUES TO BE VARY A BIT. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE
GENERALLY FROM SOUTHERN IL, INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND PARTS OF
THE PENNYRILE. 20-25 KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT ONGOING. A MAXIMUM OF PW IS NOTED AROUND
2.2 IN OVER MOST OF THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
TRAINING IS A CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE RAINFALL RATES
DON'T SEEM TO BE AS INTENSE, MANY OF THESE AREAS HAVE PICKED UP
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH VERY SATURATED GROUND. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THE CURRENT
FLOOD WATCH FOR W KY, S IL, AND SW IN CONTINUES TILL 12Z.
TODAY SEES A PATTERN SHIFT TAKING PLACE AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD
ACROSS THE QUAD STATE. MUCH OF THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE AS THIS RIDGING DEVELOPS. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY FOR HEAT INDICES AT OR GREATER
THAN 105 DEGREES. RIDGING EXPANDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S THROUGH FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 110+ DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR NOW. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE WEEK WHEN GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SUGGEST THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN A BIT AND MOVING EASTWARD POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR
CONVECTION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
SCT-BKN CU FIELD WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY HAVE SOME MVFR BASES BUT THOSE SHOULD RISE TO VFR
LEVELS BY MID AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8-10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE SCT
CU DEVELOP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /NOON EDT/ MONDAY TO 8 PM
CDT /9 PM EDT/ THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...SP
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