330
FXUS63 KPAH 282243
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
543 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. PEAK HEAT INDICES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH 105 TO 110 EACH AFTERNOON. LITTLE RELIEF
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID
70S.
- IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WE TRANSITION TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-
TIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND WITH HEAT
INDEX READINGS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 100S. SMALL
CHANCES (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WE FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM THE RELENTLESS PATTERN OF STORMS AND
FLASH FLOODING! THE FINAL ROUND OF CONVECTION DISSIPATED OVER THE
EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW AREAS DUE TO WATER REMAINING OVER NUMEROUS
ROADS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IS IN
THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING NORTH RESULTING IN A VERY HOT AND STEAMY
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AT 1 PM HAVE
ALREADY REACHED THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.
A 594-597DM RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE QUAD STATE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME MORE CENTERED JUST EAST OF OUR AREA IN THE
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR FIRST
EXTENDED HEATWAVE OF THE SEASON (PADUCAH HAS ONLY HAD 2 DAYS REACH
90 TO THIS POINT IN THE SEASON). DAILY HIGHS REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S, COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S,
WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX READINGS PEAKING FROM 105 TO 110
IN MANY PLACES EACH DAY. WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING WITH THIS PACKAGE GIVEN THE DURATION ASPECT (4
STRAIGHT DAYS WITH 105+ HEAT INDEX). THERE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED
RELIEF AT NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 70S.
AS THE RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS JUST EAST OF US THERE IS SOME HINT AT
CONVECTION TRYING TO WORK NORTHWARD INTO PART OF WESTERN KY AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE THIS OUT, BUT IT
APPEARS A BIT MORE LIKELY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THURSDAY.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH
MAY ALLOW A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME AIRMASS TO RESIDE ACROSS
OUR AREA OVER OUR SEMIQUINCENTENNIAL INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT (SHORTWAVE ENERGY) UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY OR EARLY
THE FOLLOWING WEEK. JUST APPEARS LIKE WHAT YOU'D TYPICALLY HAVE
IN JULY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
PRODUCING HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE LOWER 100S WHICH PROVIDES
FUEL FOR SOME AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
SCT-BKN DIURNAL BASES WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF FUEL, AND THE
SAME WILL HOLD TMRW WITH THE SAME TRENDS AS TODAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS GRIP UPON OUR WEATHER. SOME TIGHTER
GRADIENT TO OUR WEST MAY YIELD A FEW SOUTHERLY GUSTS DURING PEAK
HEATING AGAIN TMRW, SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO INCLUDED THAT AT
KCGI/KMVN ACCORDINGLY. AND WHILE THE GUIDANCE IS NOT REALLY
HITTING IT, TRENDS SHOULD BE MONITORED WITH CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT
WINDS AND ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL, POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO
RESTRICT IN PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT WAS
NOT INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /NOON EDT/ MONDAY TO 8 PM
CDT /9 PM EDT/ THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR KYZ001>022.
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