492
FXUS63 KPAH 020344
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1044 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES, WITH AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND
HUMID OVER THE SEMIQUINCENTENNIAL INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND; EXTENDED HEADLINES ARE A POSSIBILITY.
- MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT PRINCETON BY TONIGHT,
FALLING BACK INTO MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS THIS WEEKEND.
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TOMORROW, AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
STRONG/BROAD HIGH PRESSURE FIRMS ITS GRIP UPON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER, CREATING PROLONGED EXTREME HEAT. HEAT HEADLINES
CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND COULD BE EXTENDED
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, DAILY RAIN CHANCES REAPPEAR
TOMORROW, AND SLOWLY INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
RIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST HEAT INDICES FLIRT
WITH ADVISORY LEVELS, WHICH IF ATTAINED, WOULD SUPPORT A WARNING
EXTENSION FOR DURATION IF THEY WEREN'T SO MARGINAL. BUT SINCE
THE HI'S COULD FALL SHY, AND SEEING NO BROADER CONSENSUS TO
UPGRADE, WILL STAY STEADY-AS-SHE-GOES WITH OUR HEADLINE
APPROACH TODAY, AND POTENTIALLY UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER, OR GO
WITH AN ADVISORY HEADLINE VS A WARNING. WE'LL SEE THE MODELED
POPS PLAY OUT ANOTHER 24-48 HOURS BEFORE DECIDING ON HOW
ATTAINABLE WARNING VS ADVISORY NUMBERS PAN OUT.
RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE WABASH AND PATOKA AND NOW GREEN,
WITH PRINCETON PUSHING RARE HIGH WATER LEVELS INTO MAJOR
CATEGORY BEGINNING TONIGHT, BEFORE FALLING BACK TO MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT (MVFR RESTRICTIONS) WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT. INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR FOG AT
CGI, PAH AND MVN, WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY
TO BE EXCEEDED. SCT-BKN DIURNAL CU WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AROUND 15Z
WITH BASES AROUND 2500 TO 5000FT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PICKED ON
THE RISK OF WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WEST KY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ADDED PROB30 GROUPS TO OWB AND PAH BETWEEN 02/19Z AND
03/01Z. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT, THEN PICK UP FROM THE S
TO SW AOA 5 KTS AFTER 15, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THURSDAY
EVENING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ THURSDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR INZ081-085-086.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS
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