160
FXUS63 KPAH 021708
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1208 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING THRU FRIDAY AND A HEAT ADVISORY SATURDAY.
- MAJOR RIVER FLOODING AT PRINCETON IS CRESTING TONIGHT, THEN
FALLING BACK INTO MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS THIS WEEKEND.
- STORM CHANCES INCREASE DAILY INTO NEXT WEEK, EVENTUALLY
MUTING THE EXTREMETIES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST IS OF CONCERN REGARDING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. THE 00Z AND 12Z CAMS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. SURFACE
AND MLCAPE'S ARE WELL INTO THE MID THOUSANDS JOULES ALREADY.
WHILE LACKING UPPER SUPPORT, DOWNDRAFT CAPE SUGGESTS A
POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND HAZARD FROM COLLAPSING STORMS, IF THEY
MATERIALIZE. AND WHILE THE HIGHER THREAT IS TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY IF ANY CAN GET GOING HERE IN THIS
HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRON.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT/HUMIDITY CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. BUT
WITH A DAILY POP UPTICK THAT CARRIES THRU THE WEEKEND RIGHT ON
INTO NEXT WEEK, AT SOME POINT THE CONVECTION AND DEBRIS CLOUD
MUTES US OFF THE HEADLINE NUMBERS. IT'LL STILL BE WARM/HUMID, IT
IS MID-SUMMER AFTER ALL; BUT THE HEADLINE EXTREMITIES SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CEASE. UNTIL THEN, WE'LL KEEP 'EM GOING WITH HIGH
VISIBILITY INTO THE SEMIQUINCENTENNIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT, PER COLLABORATION, WE EXTENDED THE HEADLINE THRU
INDEPENDENCE DAY (ADVISORY), AND WILL ADDRESS ANY HEADLINE MOVES
THEREAFTER ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
LOW VFR BASES MAY RESTRICT IF/WHERE STORMS OCCUR, BUT THE
CHANCES ARE ISOLATED AT BEST AND AS SUCH ARE DEVOID FROM THE
TERMINAL FORECAST IN THIS PACKAGE. STORM CHANCES DO GROW WITH
TIME HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE DIURNAL CU BASES SHOULD
AVERAGE AROUND 4K FT AGL, EXPIRING WITH LOSS OF FUEL BUT THERE
MAY BE FEW-SCT HIGH LEVEL BASES AT NIGHT, AS WELL AS PATCHES OF
FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT TERMINALS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
HIGH PRESSURE, WE DECIDED A PERSISTENCE STRAGETY FORECAST WAS
BEST AGAIN, SO LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THIS PACKAGE FOR
THE TIME BEING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
080>094.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ FRIDAY FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ FRIDAY TO 8 PM CDT /9
PM EDT/ SATURDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
KYZ001>022.
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