144
FXUS63 KPAH 031149
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
649 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND, WITH AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH
THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY.
- LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-30%)
RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA,
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, AND ESPECIALLY WEST KENTUCKY, WITH
THESE AREAS INCLUDED IN THE SPC DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (30-60%) WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LESSER CHANCES (20-40%) WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAMP DOWN
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONABLE READINGS SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY HUMID.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AS HEAT INDICES REACH 105 TO 112 DEGREES, AND THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL TONE DOWN HEAT INDICES INTO THE 102
TO 107 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY, AND THE 98-105
DEGREE RANGE ON SUNDAY. THE HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES, HEAT
INDICES WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 90S.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST,
15-30% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PAH
FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS INCLUDED OUR EASTERN HALF IN A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT
TROF IN CONJUNCTION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODEL BLEND PRODUCES ON AND OFF CHANCES OF 30-60% SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES BECOMING MORE FOCUSED
ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL LINGER IN OUR REGION MID TO
LATE WEEK, KEEPING 20-40% CHANCES SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR
AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
ANY LINGERING MVFR FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
PRIMARILY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY EAST OF MISSISSIPPI
RIVER, BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. BRIEF DIPS TO MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT/CALM TO SOUTH AROUND 5KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING TO 8 PM
CDT /9 PM EDT/ SATURDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ001>022.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST
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