900
FXUS63 KPAH 102353
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
653 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
LARGE HAIL REPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED FLOODING HAZARD FROM MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS THRU
SATURDAY NIGHT, WHEN A FINAL ROUND OF STORMS MAY BRING STRONG
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL AGAIN, IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WE ARE WATCHING 3 DIFFERENT AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. CONFIDENCE
IN HOW LONG THE THREE AREAS HOLD TOGETHER IS UNCERTAIN, BUT THEY
ALL COULD BE SEVERE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 480 IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT, BUT AN EXTENSION AND/OR EXPANSION TO THE EAST
IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
BROAD SWATH 1-3" ACROSS SEMO/SWIL/FAR WKY DID CONTAIN WITHIN IT
POCKETS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS CUMULATIVELY TOTALING 2-3X THE AREAL
AVERAGE, RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE THAT OCCURRED.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, NOT DISSIMILAR TO THE TIMING OF
YESTERDAY'S ROUND BUT PERHAPS DISPLACED SOME TO THE EAST WITH
THE MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
NE MO ACROSS SCNTRL IL INTO SW IN TONIGHT. IT WILL HAVE
SUFFICIENT ENERGY/JUICE THIS EVENING TO YIELD A SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY SEVERE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARILY, BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR LARGE HAIL REPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF
TRAINING/REPEAT STORMS GET GOING, OUR FORECAST AVERAGE AMOUNTS
OF AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" THRU THE WEEKEND MAY SEE LOCALIZED TOTALS
TWICE THAT OR BETTER, KEEPING THE FLOODING CONCERN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND. A FINAL ROUND LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL YIELD SMALL SEVERE CHANCES AND MORE HEAVY RAIN TO CONTEND
WITH, BUT GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION AND TIMING IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN OWING TO THE PREVIOUS DAY(S) CONVECTION AND HOW
THAT'LL ULTIMATELY BE MODELLED...STAY TUNED FOR FINE TUNES.
WHILE PCPN CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT DOES LOOK
LIKE WE TRANSITION TO A HIGHER PRESSURE INFLUENCED SENSIBLE WX
FORECAST OVERALL, RESULTING IN A LITTLE HOTTER/DRIER CONDITIONS
BY THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
TRIED TO TIME THE STORMS THIS EVENING AND THEN HAVE A 4-6 HOUR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY NOT
HAPPEN AT ALL SITES, BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN IT
DOWN. SOME PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING,
MAINLY IN THE NORTH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT /1 AM EDT/ TONIGHT FOR INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ001>022.
UPDATE...DRS
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DRS
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