493
FXUS63 KPAH 140705
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
205 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TRANSITIONING TO A WARMER PATTERN, HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 90S
OVER THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON RAIN/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A VERY STRONG ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE HAS BROUGHT ALL-TIME RECORD
HIGHS TO SEVERAL SITES IN THE MOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL STEER THE WORST OF THE HEAT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. A STALLED OUT LOW
PRESSURE DISTURBANCE OVER ALABAMA, WITH A WEST-EAST STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IN THE DEEP SOUTH WILL LARGELY KEEP PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH MIDWEEK. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS COVERS SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIMITED MODEL SUPPORT.
THE DEEP SOUTH LOW DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH
TOMORROW. NORTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE, WINDS THROUGH THE QUAD
STATE WEDNESDAY WILL BE EASTERLY. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE, WITH
SEMO FAVORED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF MODELS. PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN, WITH DECENT CAPE BUT TRIVIAL SHEAR, PULSE STORMS WILL
YIELD VERY LITTLE STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. PWS OF
2.2IN WILL YIELD HEAVY RAIN RATES BUT TRAINING IS LIMITED.
SLOW CONTINUED DRIFTING OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL YIELD DIURNAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL, WITH
FRIDAY FAVORING THE NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN THE EAST MAY
BOLSTER PRECIP CHANCES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME, SOME OF THE WARMEST
CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S. HEATRISK MAXES OUT FRIDAY-SATURDAY IN MODERATE
(LEVEL 2). A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK COULD BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE QUAD STATE, THOUGH MODELS
VARY ON POSITIONING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
SCT CU SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE REGION. MAY FLIRT WITH BKN CATEGORY
AT TIMES FOR KPAH/KCGI. INITIAL BASES AROUND 2.5 TO 3KFT LATE
MORNING WILL RISE TO 4-5KFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
MAINLY CLOSE TO THE TN/AR BORDERS. WHILE KPAH/KCGI STAND HIGHEST
CHANCE, PROBABILITY IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST TOMORROW, GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...SP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page