304
FXUS63 KPAH 010525
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1225 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MILD WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN POTENTIAL HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 IN SOME PLACES
AND COULD APPROACH RECORD COLD HIGHS.
- MONDAY AND TUESDAY SPORT WEAK (~20%) AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
RAIN MAINLY OUT EAST.
- 90 DEGREE HIGHS RETURN BY FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES PUSHING
INTO THE LOW 100S ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE QUAD STATE CURRENTLY AND
BRINGING SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. THE MAIN
CONCERN AT THIS POINT WOULD BE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS (THOUGH THE LINE APPEARS TO BE MOVING PRETTY GOOD AT
THIS TIME). CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT LATER THIS MORNING BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS THE
UPPER AND SFC LOWS SLOWLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA. THERE
SHOULDN'T BE ANY SEVERE CONCERNS GIVEN THAT WE'RE BEHIND THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW,
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW COLD AIR FUNNELS. WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER
TODAY AND TOMORROW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH 80 IN SOME PLACES AND MAY APPROACH RECORD COLD HIGHS.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW BEING MORE TO OUR EAST. THEREFORE, PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE DECREASED TO ~20% IN THE PENNYRILE MONDAY, AND
SOUTHWEST IN/PENNYRILE ON TUESDAY. MOST OF THE QUAD STATE WILL STAY
DRY THOUGH. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE LOW STILL SLOWLY MEANDERING TO THE EAST.
BY WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND PUSHING 90
AGAIN. HIGHS ARE BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY. UNFORTUNATELY
DEW POINTS CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE MID 70S (OR HIGHER, AS THEY HAVE
BEEN OVER ACHIEVING THIS SUMMER) ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MEANS
HEAT INDICES RETURN TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHOULD DEW POINTS OVER ACHIEVE, A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 503 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHILE THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM RESTRICTIONS THIS
EVENING, ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS WITH OVERALL DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL AND ULTIMATE
PASSAGE, AND TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST IMPROVEMENT TMRW
WILL BE SLOW/GRADUAL, LIKELY STAYING WITHIN RESTRICTED BOUNDS
FOR MOST TERMINALS/MOST OF THE DAY.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...
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