691
FXUS63 KPAH 011745
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MILD WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN POTENTIAL HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 IN SOME PLACES
AND COULD APPROACH RECORD COLD HIGHS.
- MONDAY AND TUESDAY SPORT WEAK (~20%) AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR
RAIN MAINLY OUT EAST.
- 90 DEGREE HIGHS RETURN BY FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES PUSHING
INTO THE LOW 100S ONCE AGAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE QUAD STATE CURRENTLY AND
BRINGING SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. THE MAIN
CONCERN AT THIS POINT WOULD BE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS (THOUGH THE LINE APPEARS TO BE MOVING PRETTY GOOD AT
THIS TIME). CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT LATER THIS MORNING BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS THE
UPPER AND SFC LOWS SLOWLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA. THERE
SHOULDN'T BE ANY SEVERE CONCERNS GIVEN THAT WE'RE BEHIND THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW,
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW COLD AIR FUNNELS. WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER
TODAY AND TOMORROW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH 80 IN SOME PLACES AND MAY APPROACH RECORD COLD HIGHS.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW BEING MORE TO OUR EAST. THEREFORE, PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE DECREASED TO ~20% IN THE PENNYRILE MONDAY, AND
SOUTHWEST IN/PENNYRILE ON TUESDAY. MOST OF THE QUAD STATE WILL STAY
DRY THOUGH. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE LOW STILL SLOWLY MEANDERING TO THE EAST.
BY WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND PUSHING 90
AGAIN. HIGHS ARE BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY. UNFORTUNATELY
DEW POINTS CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE MID 70S (OR HIGHER, AS THEY HAVE
BEEN OVER ACHIEVING THIS SUMMER) ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MEANS
HEAT INDICES RETURN TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHOULD DEW POINTS OVER ACHIEVE, A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED BY IFR CIGS IS EXITING THE
QUAD STATE TO THE EAST. ELSEWHERE, CIGS ARE MVFR TO LOW END VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME WRAP-AROUND DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING CHANCES IN
THE NORTH THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW MORNING, MAINLY IN THE
EAST. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. VSBY
DROPS ARE LIKELY WITH DRIZZLE TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY
BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW, WITH BREEZES GUSTING TO 15-20MPH IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE QUAD STATE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...ATL
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