793
FXUS63 KPAH 030455
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1155 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DRIZZLE, LIGHT SHOWERS, AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL
KEEP US COOL AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON (UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80).
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES CLEAR.
- PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
THROUGH THE 80S, RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
- LATE WEEK (THURSDAY-SATURDAY) HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED, ALTHOUGH CURRENT RAIN CHANCES (20-30%)
REMAIN LOW DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
- GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING OUR NEXT HEATWAVE MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
NEXT SUNDAY AND THEN CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES HAS JUMPED TO 60-80% DURING THIS TIME
ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE (50-60%) OF HEAT INDEX READINGS
EXCEEDING 100.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS KY AND INTO AR CURRENTLY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HAVE
PRIMARILY BEEN IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
POSITIONED MORE INTO EAST TN AND GA. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. WE SHOULD STAY DRY ON MONDAY
ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE UPPER ENERGY TO OUR SOUTHEAST MAY
ATTEMPT TO LIFT BACK NORTHWEST SOME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH
COULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO SNEAK BACK INTO THE
KY PENNYRILE. SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, BUT
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE THEM OUT (10-20% CHANCE). OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A
DRY NEXT 3 DAYS FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION.
AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, IT
WILL ALLOW RIPPLES OF ENERGY TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR PORTIONS OF OUR REGION,
ALTHOUGH CURRENT POPS ARE ONLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE AT BEST. THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR REGION MOST OF THIS TIME,
BUT IT MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST WIND SHEAR (25 KTS OR
GREATER) LARGELY STAYS NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT WITH INSTABILITY
LIKELY TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ML SEVERE PROBS JUMP BACK TO 5% FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH HIGHEST PROBS STAY NORTH OF US.
SOMETHING TO MONITOR AT LEAST, AND GIVEN HOW ACTIVE THIS SUMMER HAS
BEEN, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING AT ALL TO SEE SOME STRONGER CONVECTION
RETURN.
WHILE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES MID TO LATE
WEEK, IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AUG 9-11 PERIOD FOR
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL HEATWAVE. LREF PROBABILITIES OF HITTING 90 ARE IN
THE 50-60% RANGE BY THURS-SAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
(EVEN AS EARLY AS WED IN OUR FAR WEST), BUT THEY JUMP UP TO 60-80%
BY NEXT SUN-TUES. ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING UPPER HEIGHTS RISE DURING
THIS TIME AS RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. NBM HAS TONED DOWN HEAT INDEX READINGS FOR LATE WEEK,
PRIMARILY MID TO UPPER 90S, BUT HAS THEM JUMPING BACK TO 100 IN
PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND MOST OF OUR AREA BY NEXT SUNDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS HEAT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST BULLISH WITH IT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT. HOWEVER, BETWEEN A
PERSISTENT LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE AND SCATTERED 4-5KFT CLOUDS,
FOG MAY HAVE A HARD TIME SETTING IN. STUCK WITH MVFR FOG AT ALL
SITES, BUT DID MENTION MIFG AT KMVN AND KCGI WHERE CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
A 4-6KFT CEILING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT, AND IT WILL NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DRS
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