815
FXUS63 KPAH 040702
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
202 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE AT CONVECTION IS THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT
AROUND 40- 60%. SOME EARLIER STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- 90 DEGREE HIGHS RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES
PUSHING INTO THE LOW 100S ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
ALOFT A CUT OFF LOW SLOWLY SPINS TO OUR SE WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
PASSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHEAST. CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING IS LEADING TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S RISING TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
TOMORROW.
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THURSDAY A POCKET OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROF AND MOVES A NORTHERN COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE AREA. THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HAS THE BEST CHANCE (40-60%) OF CONVECTION
PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
QUICKLY FALL OFF AFTER 00Z BUT ANY EARLIER STORMS COULD AT
LEAST BE STRONG WITH 20-25 KTS OF SHEAR AND 1,000-1,500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MORE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW, THOUGH TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER
EXTENT (20- 40%) AND WITH LESS STRONG TO SEVERE CAPABILITY.
TEMPERATURES STAGNATE IN THE UPPER 80S TO PUSHING 90 THROUGH
SATURDAY. THOUGH THINGS START TO WARM UP AGAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE NBM PROBABILITY OF HITTING AT LEAST 90 ON
MONDAY IS >60% AND THE LREF PROBABILITY OF A HEAT INDEX OF AT LEAST
100 IS 40-60%. TUESDAY THE NBM PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 90 IS SIMILAR
TO MONDAY, WHILE THE LREF PROBABILITY OF A HEAT INDEX OF AT LEAST
100 IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 50-70%.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL
CLEAR BY MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF ITS INSOLAR FUEL.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS T/TD SPREAD NEARS SATURATION LATE
TONIGHT, SO PATCHY FOG WITH RESTRICTED VSBYS IS OFFERED; THERE
MAY BE RESTRICTED BASES EARLY TMRW AM AS INSOLATION BURNS/LIFTS
THE FOG OUT, ALBEIT BRIEFLY, BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS
IN ENTIRETY WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL BASES 4-5K FT AGL BY AND DURING
THE PLANNING PHASE HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...
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