441
FXUS63 KPAH 042203
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
503 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (WITH ROUGHLY 25
TO 50% COVERAGE) ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BRING DAILY PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, THE REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF H5 RIDGING
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. ANOTHER
MID- LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHILE
BROAD TROUGHING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. A DEEP 996
MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY, WITH A WEAK/DIFFUSE
TRAILING COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL BRING CONTINUED
DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MORE SHALLOW PREDAWN FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN LOW SPOTS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL ATTEMPT (BUT FAIL) TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA AND
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL.
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL INITIATE PERIODS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RIGHT NOW, THE GREATEST CHANCES (30-50%) LOOK TO OCCUR THURSDAY
MORNING, THEN DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY
HOURS DURING THIS TIME, AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN. IN
TERMS OF ANY POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, THE LONGER RANGE
CAMS SHOW ABOUT 25-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS SE MO AND
SW IL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT TO
THE NORTH AS H5 RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EXPANDS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND OZARKS. THIS
WILL MEAN INCREASING TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS, BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THIS WILL YIELD HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 DEGREES. SINCE THE REGION (ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST IN, NORTHWEST KY, AND THE PENNYRILE) WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
"RIDGE-RIDER" THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AS WELL DURING THIS PERIOD,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS STILL MAINTAINS PREDOMINANT
CONTROL ON OUR PATTERN HERE, WHILE A RETROGRADE DRIFT OF AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING SOME DEBRIS CLOUD
INTO THE FORECAST PICTURE WITH TIME, BUT LIKELY STAYING JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL AEORODROME SPACE. LIGHT
WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND PERSISTENCE STRATEGY FORECAST PLACES
PATCHY FOG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AGAIN TONIGHT, SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT, WITH AN ALSO SIMILAR TO TODAY FAST BURN-OFF TMRW
MORNING, RETURNING TO VFR ALL SITES BY MID-LATE MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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