643
FXUS63 KPAH 050727
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
227 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE AT CONVECTION IS THURSDAY OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 30-60%.
SOME EARLIER STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- 90 DEGREE HIGHS RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH HEAT INDICES PUSHING
INTO THE LOW 100S ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT IS SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS AND THE TROF AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY TO
BE POSITIONED THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AT THE SFC A
COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL IL, CENTRAL MO, AND SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH IS WHERE IT WILL LARGELY STALL OUT. AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS TODAY, A RIPPLE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL SPUR ON A FEW SHOWERS AN STORMS BY
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SEMO AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IL. AFTER A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON THURSDAY, 30-60% POPS COME
BACK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY THEN TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING
OVER WEST KY. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME
THOUGH. THURSDAY IN PARTICULAR, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY BRINGING BACK HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES BACK INTO THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE THROUGH EARLY WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN 20-30% POPS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AND BRING SOME POTENTIAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS STILL MAINTAINS PREDOMINANT
CONTROL ON OUR PATTERN HERE, WHILE A RETROGRADE DRIFT OF AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING SOME DEBRIS CLOUD
INTO THE FORECAST PICTURE WITH TIME, BUT LIKELY STAYING JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL AERODROME SPACE. LIGHT
WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND PERSISTENCE STRATEGY FORECAST PLACES
PATCHY FOG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AGAIN TONIGHT, SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT, WITH AN ALSO SIMILAR TO TODAY FAST BURN-OFF TMRW
MORNING, RETURNING TO VFR ALL SITES BY MID-LATE MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...
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