759
FXUS63 KPAH 060444
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1144 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS, THEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, THEN AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY, BUT SO WILL HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. DAILY PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
AT THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL, THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE WEAKENING
INFLUENCE OF H5 RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER MID- LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHILE BROAD TROUGHING IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. A DEEP 992 MB SURFACE LOW
IS LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY, WITH A WEAK/DIFFUSE TRAILING COLD
FRONT ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS.
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
CONTINUED DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY VALUES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY (MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER) WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING. DURING THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY, MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRIGGER MORE ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING (WITH LINGERING
ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN WEST KY). WE HAVE BEEN
MESSAGING A POSSIBLY LOW-END SEVERE RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY,
BUT THE LATEST CAMS ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE ALREADY MEAGER
SHEAR VALUES. LATEST THINKING IS THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
GARDEN- VARIETY SUMMERTIME STORMS MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE.
BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT TO
THE NORTH AS H5 RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EXPANDS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND OZARKS. THIS
WILL MEAN INCREASING TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS, BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THIS WILL YIELD DAILY
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CLEARING ENOUGH THAT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. GROUND FOG NEAR BODIES OF WATER
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR CLOSE TO FAVORABLE
FOR A LITTLE BIT THICKER LAYERS OF FOG IF ENOUGH RADIATIVE
COOLING CAN OCCUR. AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER KANSAS THIS
EVENING WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWER
AND ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 09-10Z THROUGH MIDDAY.
CLOUD DECKS SHOULD BE VFR BUT HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD LOWER
VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...JGG
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