449
FXUS63 KPAH 070613
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
113 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE OF INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE GREATEST RISK
OF STORMS PEAKING THIS EVENING.
- AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING
100 TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.
- AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LATTER
HALF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BECOME A
BIT MORE AMPLIFIED THOUGH THIS EVENING, PROVIDING MODEST
FORCING FOR A 20-50% CHANCE OF INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST RISK PEAKS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
WHEN STORMS CAPABLE OF CAUSING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE POSSIBLE. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
STRONG GUSTY STORM GIVEN DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
7.5-8.0 C/KM 0-3KM LAPSE RATES AND A 30-40K THETA-E DIFFERENCE.
LOW RAIN CHANCES SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. TOTAL RAINFALL
BETWEEN A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A HALF INCH REMAINS PROGGED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS MORE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S WILL POTENTIALLY YIELD 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HEAT
INDEX VALUES RISING ABOVE 100 TO AROUND 105 DEGREES, AND MAY
EVENTUALLY REQUIRE A HEAT ADVISORY IN THE FUTURE. A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY EVEN REACH 100 TODAY, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS TOO LIMITED TO
WARRANT ANY HEADLINES FOR THE DURATION CRITERIA. WHILE A BRIEF
LULL IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS, THE RIDGE QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAKING A RETURN BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY TREND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF MT. VERNON HAS CREPT UP THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD PROVIDE MINIMAL IF ANY IMPACTS. GROUND FOG
POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS MITIGATED BY ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD DESPITE LIGHT WINDS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK A LITTLE
BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AREA-WIDE WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES STILL OVER SEMO AMID A MODERATE SOUTH WIND.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JGG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page