073
FXUS63 KPAH 201733
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1233 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, AND WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT.
- MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- SMALL DAILY 15 TO 25% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
VERY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO, FAR SOUTHERN
IL, AND WESTERN KY. THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED W TO E JUST NORTH OF THE KY/TN AND MO/AR
BORDER. WITH PWAT VALUES OF 2.0-2.3" AND TRAINING STORMS, THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN LATER THIS MORNING HAS
THE FRONT SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION, AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO BRING SMALL 15-25% SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EACH
DAY SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE QUAD STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 00Z,
BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, FOG OR LOW
CEILINGS ARE A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE LOW
CEILING AT KEVV AND KOWB WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE
PERSISTENT, AND WENT WITH IFR OR LOWER FOG AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AT KOWB.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DRS
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