703
FXUS63 KPAH 201907
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
207 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
- INTERMITTENT SMALL CHANCES (15-30%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH INTO/THROUGH THE
QUAD STATE TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG IT
FROM NEAR EVANSVILLE INDIANA TO NEAR BENTON ILLINOIS. THESE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BOUNCE AROUND ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH, TO
THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE
DONE BY 00Z. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
THE QUAD STATE WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GUIDANCE BRINGS DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT THERE IS NO
AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS OF TIMING AND LOCATION. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY, BUT AFTER THAT THE NBM HAS
SMALL CHANCE POPS (15-30%) THROWN IN SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLES, THERE
IS A NEAR 100% CHANCE THAT THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT SOME POINT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. SO,
EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ONCE THE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES SHOW
THEMSELVES MORE CLEARLY.
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERIODICALLY BRINGING FRESH SHOTS
OF COOLER, DRIER AIR THROUGH THE QUAD STATE, TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE QUAD STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 00Z,
BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, FOG OR LOW
CEILINGS ARE A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE LOW
CEILING AT KEVV AND KOWB WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE
PERSISTENT, AND WENT WITH IFR OR LOWER FOG AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AT KOWB.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
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