825
FXUS63 KPAH 240439
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1139 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
- ELEVATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CLIP CARTER AND
RIPLEY COUNTY MONDAY MORNING WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAINFALL
BETWEEN ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE BY
WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH
20-30% CHANCE OF DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
A BROAD H5 TROUGH WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. DRIER AIR
ABOVE 800 MB HAS ALLOWED FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S IN SOME SPOTS WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LEANED BELOW NBM FOR LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
MORNING THAT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH THE PROBABILISTIC NBM/LAMP GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A
20-40% CHANCE. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
ELEVATED COMPLEX OF STORMS TO CLIP CARTER AND RIPLEY COUNTY AS A H5
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. LIMITED NBM POPS TO A 30% CHANCE FOR A
TENTH OR TWO INCH OF RAINFALL AS MOST OF THE 12Z CAMS HAVE
SHIFTED MORE SOUTH TOWARDS THE BETTER INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY TREND MORE SEASONABLE BY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE RISE FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND TROUGH THAT WILL SEND ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES OUR
WAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY ONLY
RANGE FROM 20-30% WITH EVEN LOWER CHANCES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
LOOKING AT CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL, MVN LOOKS TO HAVE
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF REACHING THEIR CROSSOVER TEMP TONIGHT
AND SEEING FOG FORMATION (AND BASED ON HOW THEY SAW FOG LAST
NIGHT). PAH MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL BUT POSSIBLY NOT AS
GREAT OF A DROP IN VSBY AS MVN. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION AT CGI TONIGHT. EVV AND OWB MIXED FAIRLY DEEP TODAY
AND THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE MORE OUT OF REACH EVEN WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS RESUME TOMORROW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNSET.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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