926
FXUS63 KPAH 260612
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (30-60% CHANCE) ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE KY
PENNYRILE ON THURSDAY. WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING (MAINLY HAILERS), THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR
SEVERE STORMS (LOW END THREAT) IS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS IS THE MAIN CONCERN.
- HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. UNLIKE PREVIOUS
HEAT WAVES THIS SUMMER, THIS WILL BE A MUCH DRIER HEAT WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 90S. HEAT INDEX
READINGS MAY EXCEED 100 BY TUESDAY, WITH THE HEAT POSSIBLY
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
AN AREA OF VORTICITY IN THE MID LEVELS (500-700MB) WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR ST LOUIS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS MISSOURI WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG SITUATED JUST TO
OUR WEST. MOST OF THE CAMS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR
OR SOUTH OF ST LOUIS BY 08-09Z AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 10- 15Z. WHILE
THE WARM FRONT LIKELY REMAINS TO OUR WEST, MUCAPE REACHES NEAR
2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5
C AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS MAY SUPPORT SOME LARGE HAIL
WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WHILE
THE SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER LOW THIS MORNING, IT'S NON-ZERO.
DEPENDING ON HOW ANY POSSIBLE MORNING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD DEBRIS PLAY OUT WILL DICTATE HOW UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT GETS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST CAMS NOW KEEP MOST OUR AREA DRY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ASIDE FROM THE FV3. HOWEVER, IF MORNING
CONVECTION DOESN'T MATERIALIZE OR EXITS THE REGION SOON ENOUGH,
WOULD TEND TO THINK AT LEAST SOUTHEAST MISSOURI HAS A SHOT FOR SOME
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, THERE IS STILL A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION SINKING SOUTH ACROSS IL/IN THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND EVV TRI STATE PROBABLY HAVE
THE BEST SHOT TO SEE STRONGER STORMS WITH THAT ACTIVITY BEFORE
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE FURTHER AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT AND
THEREAFTER. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DCAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THE FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR ALL OF
WEST KENTUCKY UNTIL SOMETIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION.
AFTER A BRIEF RETURN OF HIGHER HUMIDITY (DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S)
TODAY, A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOLER NIGHTS AGAIN WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 60S BUT WARM
AFTERNOONS WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING THE RIDGE PRIMARILY IN
TACT THROUGH AT LEAST MID OR EVEN LATE NEXT WEEK. HIGHS RETURN TO
THE 90S ON SUNDAY, AND LIKELY WILL PUSH THE MID 90S HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN LOW INITIALLY, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP UP SOME ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY. THEY SHOULDN'T BE
ANYWHERE NEAR WHAT WE WITNESSED DURING PREVIOUS HEATWAVES THIS
SUMMER THOUGH DUE TO LESS EVAPORATIONAL TRANSPORT FROM AGRICULTURAL.
REGARDLESS, HOT AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT (POSSIBLY SOME
OF THE WARMEST WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SEASON). THE LREF
PROBABILITIES OF MAXTS REACHING AT LEAST 95 DEGREES ARE 50-70% BY
NEXT TUES-WED. SO HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY STILL EXCEED 100 SEVERAL
DAYS NEXT WEEK BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TMRW AM.
THIS MAY SPILL A FEW DEBRIS CLOUDS INTO THE TERMINAL FORECAST
FLIGHT AREA, NAMELY FOR THE TERMINALS KCGI/KPAH NEARER THE
BOUNDARY, AND MIGHT YIELD A CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM BUT WE
THINK THE FOCUS ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOWN IN ARKANSAS IS ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE FROM THE 00Z MENTION; WILL REEVALUATE AT 06Z. IT'LL
BE AN OTHERWISE VFR FORECAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLIES DEVELOPING
TMRW AND ADDITIONAL/PERHAPS BETTER PCPN PROBABILITIES COMING IN
JUST BEYOND THE PURVIEW OF THIS PACKAGE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...PREVIOUS FCTER
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