542
FXUS63 KPAH 271059
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
559 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MAKES COMPLETE PASSAGE BEFORE SUNRISE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A LATE SEASON HEATWAVE
WILL IMPACT OUR REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S. WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS HEATWAVES THIS SUMMER, HEAT INDEX READINGS
LIKELY WILL STILL EXCEED 100 BY TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUBBLE UP ALONG A COLD FRONT
SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF
OUR AREA BY SUNRISE AND ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH DOWN IN TN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK (GENERALLY 20 KTS
AT BEST) BUT WE DO STILL HAVE DCAPE OF 1000-1200 J/KG SO CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME DECENT WIND OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT, WHEN A
FEW STATIONS MAY DROP INTO THE 50S AGAIN. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. AS 850MB TEMPS RISE ABOVE 20C, WE WILL
SEE HIGHS BACK INTO THE 90S BY SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN LOW SO
HEAT INDEX READINGS WON'T BE MUCH HIGHER THAN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE 594DM RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE OH/TN VALLEY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE WEEK, THE TREND HAS BEEN TO KEEP THE RIDGE
IN TACT RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME SOLUTIONS EVEN KEEP
IT IN PLACE THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IT'S QUITE POSSIBLE THIS MAY
TURN INTO ONE OF OUR LONGEST HEATWAVES OF THE SUMMER SEASON.
LREF PROBABILITIES FOR HEAT INDEX READINGS EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ARE
60-70% FOR WED-FRI NEXT WEEK. PROBABILITIES FOR MAXTS REACHING AT
LEAST 95 DEGREES PEAK IN THE 70-80% RANGE TUES-FRI. GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR (WANING INFLUENCE OF CROPS INFLUENCING DEW POINTS), THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS HEATWAVES
THIS SUMMER. LREF ONLY HAS ABOUT A 40-50% CHANCE FOR DEWPOINTS
EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES (A FAR CRY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WE
HAVE ENDURED QUITE A BIT THIS SUMMER). REGARDLESS THOUGH, HEAT
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY AS MAXTS WILL BE RIGHT UP THERE NEAR THE HIGHEST
WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS SUMMER. GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE,
AMBIENT TEMPS MAY END UP HITTING THE UPPER 90S A COUPLE OF DAYS AND
IT'S QUITE POSSIBLE A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH 100. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO
LOOK QUITE WARM, WITH THE LREF ONLY SUGGESTING A 20-40% CHANCE
READINGS WILL DROP BELOW 75 DEGREES OVERNIGHT WED-FRI NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY CHALLENGE SOME DAILY RECORD WARM LOWS, WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN
THE MID 70S IN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HEATRISK ALSO RAMPS UP TO MAJOR
CATEGORY BY TUESDAY AND EXTREME ON WEDNESDAY, SUGGESTING HEAT
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED (PARTICULARLY FOR THE DURATION
ASPECT).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BASES AROUND 4-6KFT. NNW WINDS AROUND 5-7 KTS
TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WE MAY HAVE ADDITIONAL PATCHY
FOG TO CONTEND WITH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
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