055
FXUS63 KPAH 101754
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1254 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 50-95% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH BY THIS EVENING.
- 20-50% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION, THEN ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PAH FORECAST AREA. CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND WEST KENTUCKY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY TREND DOWNWARD, WITH SEASONABLE
READINGS FOR FRIDAY, THEN VALUES CLIMB BACK TO 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- 20-50% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. CHANCES BY DAYBREAK WILL BE 75-95%
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA, WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE PAH FA THROUGH THE DAY. BY THIS EVENING, THE BEST CHANCES
(40-70%) WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
REGION, WITH SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
NORTH OF ROUTE 13 DRY LATE TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY, 20-50% CHANCES
WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING UP JUST
SOUTH OF OUR REGION AND AN UPPER TROF MOVING OVER THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, KEEPING THINGS
UNSETTLED INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED (20-50% CHANCES) SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE.
SPC DAY 1 SHOWS A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF OUR REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE MODEL BLEND KEEPS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DRY. BY
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR NOW,
THE MODEL BLEND PRODUCES 20-50% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH. FRIDAY WILL SEE
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A QUICK RETURN OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS, WITH BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS 5 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LINGERING
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA IN OUR NORTH SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND
BECOME VFR BY 20Z. FURTHER SOUTH, SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
POPPED UP OVER WEST KENTUCKY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI BY LATER AFTERNOON AND MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A LOW STRATUS
DECK AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS, IF NOT LOWER, BY TOMORROW MORNING.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...SP
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