552
FXUS63 KPAH 111712
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1212 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY FROM 20% NORTH TO 60%
SOUTH, AND TONIGHT FROM 20% WEST OF 60% EAST. CHANCES SATURDAY
FROM 30-70% WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY, THEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- AFTER A BRIEF RETURN OF NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY IN
THE 80S, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AROUND 70 DEGREES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MEANDERS JUST SOUTH OF THE PAH
FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-
60% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY, HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTH, AND THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGHEST
CHANCES EAST. ON SATURDAY, 30-70% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY, SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
PEAK HEATING.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY,
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY. OUR
REGION BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GIVE US DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST
TO EAST TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION BY MID WEEK, AND MODELS
DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE. THE
MODEL BLEND CURRENTLY PRODUCES 20-40% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCES GRADUALLY SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE PAH FORECAST AREA, PEAKING AT 50-60%
NORTH TO 30-40% SOUTH ON THURSDAY.
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
AND COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT MOVES, ALONG WITH COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AS WE
HEAD TOWARDS MID AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL PRIMARILY THIS EVENING.
KPAH/KOWB/KEVV ARE THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED WITH
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER LOW STRATUS DECK IN THE
LOW MVFR OR IFR RANGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOWER VSBYS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
IN THE STRATUS DECK BUT LOWER IN THE VSBY REDUCTIONS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...SP
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