415
FXUS63 KPAH 151702
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1202 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEADLINING LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR AT RECORD LEVELS CONTINUES THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT'S LATE WEEKEND PASSAGE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THE BLAST OF FURNACE HEAT SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ABATING THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THE UPPER (H5) HIGH HOLDS STRONG IN THE UPPER 590S DM
WHILE GRADUALLY RETROGRADING ACROSS THE FA. H8 TEMPS ACTUALLY
INCREASE 2-3C DURING THIS PERIOD, RESULTING IN FORECAST SURFACE
HIGHS CHALLENGING MID SEPTEMBER RECORD WARMTH BOTH IN TERMS OF
ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM BUT ALSO SOME RECORD WARM MINIMUMS ARE IN PLAY EACH
DAY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. COMBINED WITH DEWS HOLDING PRETTY
FIRMLY IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF THAT TIME, RESULTANT
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES WILL TOO.
WITH THE UPPER HIGH SO STRONG AND INFLUENTIAL, OUR ONLY SHORT TERM
CHANCE AT APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS WITH RIMFIRE STORMS. THE NEAREST
SUCH CHANCE IS LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING, WITH A FRONT THAT IS
POSITIONED OFF TO THE NORTH. IF SOME OF ITS HEAT-OF-DAY
EVOLUTION CAN BLOW OFF DOWN AS FAR AS I-64, THIS MIGHT OFFER THE
BEST CHANCE AT AN ISOLATED EXCEPTION TO WHAT WILL OTHERWISE
CONTINUE AS BASICALLY DAY-AFTER-DAY DRY CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE THEREAFTER IS WITH SOME LATE WEEKEND RIDGE
BREAKDOWN AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS PLAY TOWARD THE REGION. ITS
PASSAGE BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK; ENJOY THAT WHILE WE CAN AS A RESURGING
SIGNAL FOR BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE COUNTRY'S MID SECTION
PUTS OUR 6-10 AND 8-14 PROJECTIONS BACK INTO "ABOVE NORMAL" FOR
TEMPERATURES, AS IF SUMMER JUST DOES NOT WANT TO YIELD, AUTUMNAL
EQUINOX OR NOT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A PREDOMINANTLY VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
FORECAST, WITH FEW-SCT BASES POSSIBLE WITHIN A GENERALLY WARM
SECTORED SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THAT MAY INCLUDE SOME DIURNAL
GUSTS AT TIMES. A FRONT'S NEAR PROXIMITY TO OUR NORTH MAY OFFER
BLOW-OFF CLOUDS THAT TEMPORARILY INCREASE BASES TO SCT-BKN AT
TIMES, MOST LIKELY NORTH AT KMVN-KEVV/KOWB IF IT OCCURS.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ FRIDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
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