234
FXUS63 KPAH 170251
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
951 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE DANGEROUS RECORD BREAKING LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
- THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64. LOWER CHANCES
LINGER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER INTO THE 80S. DAILY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
THE HEAT WAVE IS THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH A H5 600 DM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE
THIS AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS BETWEEN 850-200 MB ARE MAXED OUT WITH
30-YEAR RETURN INTERVALS AS THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
HUMIDITY IS EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE STOUT
RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAKDOWN THIS WEEKEND, BUT IT WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO END THE HEAT WAVE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT, 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE AN UPTICK ON SUNDAY BETWEEN
21-23C, WELL ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE. GIVEN DAILY DEEP LAYER
MIXING THAT EXTENDS UP TO 650 MB ON BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS, HAVE
EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
ALTHOUGH HEAT INDEX VALUES ON SUNDAY ARE MORE MARGINAL NEAR 100
DEGREES, THE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATE HEAT-RELATED HEALTH IMPACTS.
WITH AN INCREASE IN WEEKEND OUTDOOR ACTIVES LATE IN THE SEASON,
THE HEAT IMPACTS WILL BE GREATER THAN NORMAL DESPITE WHAT THE
CRITERIA MAY SUGGEST. IN FACT, MULTIPLE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
TIED IF NOT BROKEN OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AS FOR ANY RELIEF IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-64 DUE TO A STATIONARY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST. RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH ARE
EVEN LOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT NON-ZERO AS THE
AFORMENTIONED BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. IT WILL NOT BE
UNTIL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN TRUE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY ARRIVES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDING INTO THE 80S AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DAILY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THIS ISSUANCE.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT AT
CGI/MVN AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM COULD IMPACT THE TAF SITES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 10% CHANCE.
AGAIN, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AROUND OR LESS THAN 10 KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY, SEP 16:
CGI: 99 (2019)
MDH: 101 (1927)
EVV: 97 (1897)
PAH: 97 (2019)
POF: 101 (1927)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY, SEP 17:
CGI: 96 (2019)
MDH: 102 (1927)
EVV: 96 (1927)
PAH: 98 (1939)
POF: 101 (1927)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY, SEP 18:
CGI: 96 (2025)
MDH: 98 (1925)
EVV: 99 (1908)
PAH: 97 (1953)
POF: 97 (1931)
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ SUNDAY FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ001>022.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...DWS
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